The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 26
This week:
- This week’s debate probably won’t change much, but Biden had to try
- Minnesota is legitimately in play
- Three “Squad” members who could lose their primaries
President 2024
Debate: Let us be clear about this: Debates seldom matter.
Indeed, absent a complete meltdown by one of the candidates (that does occasionally happen in debates) it could be said that they never matter. There simply aren’t enough persuadable voters in America who take the time to watch them or form opinions based on them.
But the Biden campaign, realizing that its candidate is headed for a resounding Electoral College defeat, has to jiggle every lever and smash every button it can in hopes of a better outcome. This strangely early presidential debate is unlikely to move the needle either way, but Joe Biden‘s (D) campaigners have to try. They might just get lucky.
Electoral College Outlook: The Electoral College picture is unchanged since we looked at it last week.
But given the most recent update in polling, we must frame this situation with a caveat: Donald Trump has now led Biden in nine of the last ten polls of Pennsylvania, going back to early April, and he tied him in the tenth poll.
It is hard to remember the last time a Democratic presidential candidate had not led in any poll of Pennsylvania over multiple months during an election year. This does not appear to have happened at any point this century, until now — not to Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or to Joe Biden in 2020. But it is happening now.
Trump appears to hold a modest but sustained and unambiguous lead over the incumbent in a state Democrats typically dominate in presidential elections, with the Black Swan event of 2016 being the sole exception. Unless Biden starts showing a lead soon, the Keystone State will probably have to be colored pink.
Biden is not so far behind in Pennsylvania that he couldn’t come back to win. But this hardly matters. His real problem is not Pennsylvania. His real problem is that he has to win 74 out of the 74 unassigned electoral votes on this map (including Pennsylvania’s TK), or else he’s toast. Trump only needs to win one out of those 74 electoral votes to become president again, since a tie in the U.S. House almost guarantees a Trump victory.
This illustrates the desperation of Biden’s entire enterprise and the rationale for agreeing to this strange early debate.
The electoral map shows that, when pundits claim that the race between Biden and Trump is close or tied, they are avoiding reality. This is actually Trump’s race to lose. Not that he is incapable of losing it, but let us face facts:
- In the two races where Trump either won or came within a hair of winning, he never enjoyed a polling situation anywhere near as good as what he has now. He trailed in the vast majority of national polls in 2016, and he trailed in nearly all polls — about 99 percent of them — in 2020.
- No Republican candidate since 1988 has polled this well in the swing states needed to win the presidency. There were only a few polls that ever showed George W. Bush leading in Pennsylvania, for example.
- Even if he upsets Trump in Pennsylvania and beats him in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Virginia, and New Hampshire, Biden can still lose the presidency by losing the second congressional district of Nebraska. He carried it by only six points in 2020, before his approval rating fell to its current low levels.
Probably more Democrats should be saying this out loud by now: Biden is in big trouble. He needs to stage a big comeback if he wants a second term. It is unclear whether any other Democrat would do better, but it is also extremely unlikely at this late stage that any other Democrat can still be given that chance.
Minnesota: It isn’t just Trump’s campaign polling any more that shows him competing for Minnesota. A new poll by Emerson, commissioned by The Hill, shows Biden and Trump tied. The last thing Biden needs is one more state to defend, but here he is. Trump came within just 1.6 points of winning Minnesota in 2016, so an upset here is not as unrealistic as you might think, despite the state government’s sharp turn to the left since 2018.
Minnesota, the only state not to back Ronald Reagan in 1984, has not backed a Republican candidate for president since Richard Nixon’s re-election in 1972.
Senate 2024
Missouri: If you expected Sen. Josh Hawley (R) to suffer due to allegations or exaggerations about his role on Jan. 6, 2021, you are probably disappointed by now. Missouri is being polled lately due to the competitive primary for governor, and the latest survey has Hawley in the high 40s and leading by nine points.
Montana: Although most recent Senate polls in key races show Democratic incumbents holding the modest early leads you would probably expect, this is one place where Democrats might be in real trouble. The first survey taken in months shows Sen. Jon Tester (D) tied with businessman and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) at 46 percent each.
Tester does drive a Prius (amusingly, Republicans recently made this an issue because Tester likes to lay on thick the rugged farmer persona in his campaign ads). Still, he is as tough a candidate as they come, having won three extremely close elections since 2006 and breaking Republican hearts each time. The same poll shows roughly 20-point leads for Trump and Gov. Greg Gianforte (R). So Tester is clearly the most durable Democrat in the state, but this also illustrates the strong presidential year tide he has to swim against.
Utah: Tomorrow’s multi-candidate primary, at heart, pits U.S. Rep. John Curtis (R) against Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R), the Trump-backed candidate. House Speaker Brad Wilson (R) has apparently mothballed his campaign, buying no more advertisements and holding no more events. His campaign headquarters is even dark, according to local news reports. This might work to the benefit of Curtis, who has been advertising aggressively on all platforms, promoting himself and accusing Staggs of supporting tax increases.
House 2024
‘The Squad’ losing ground: Tomorrow, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D) is widely expected to lose his primary election in New York this week. His anti-Israel stance has played a role, but so has his personal behavior and the quality of his opponent, moderate Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D). Bowman famously interfered with an official congressional proceeding by pulling a fire alarm to delay a roll call vote, an act caught on camera.
Bowman is not the only progressive so-called “Squad” member facing trouble this year. Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) is also widely expected to lose her August primary.
And although there is no evidence so far that her situation is as dire as Bush’s or Bowman’s, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) faces the same primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels (D), who came within 2.1 points or 2,500 votes of beating her in 2022. Samuels again enjoys the backing of the Democratic mayor of Minneapolis in that August contest.
Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) was fortunate enough not to draw a high-quality Democratic opponent, and her only opposition was thrown off the ballot for invalid petition signatures.
Virginia-5: The jury is still out on Trump’s late effort to exact vengeance against Rep. Bob Good (R), who had been a backer of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for president. Good trails the Trump-backed John McGuire (R) in the vote count by just 340 and vows a recount. He has also taken to Twitter to insinuate that fires were set intentionally in three different polling places in order to affect the outcome. In fact, it appears that there were no fires, although fire alarms were triggered at three locations, which briefly delayed voting in two cases and in one case caused it to be moved outside for 30 minutes. The three alarms at polling places were blamed on (respectively) cleaning equipment, a ceiling tile hitting an alarm, and steam from a boiler.
