Vol. 12, Issue 20
This week:
- Biden is falling further behind in key swing states
- Florida is pretty much off the table
- Rick Scott is crushing it
President 2024
The New York Times/Siena has released a new set of state-level polls, and there is precious little good news in them for Joe Biden.
For one thing, it is apparent that, in spite of a few outliers in this regard, the candidacy of RFK, Jr. is taking more support away from Biden in most places than it is from Trump. However, RFK does not appear to be a spoiler in any of these states, as Trump leads in head-to-head contests in nearly all of them.
Surveys that include RFK show Trump leading in Georgia (Trump +8), Arizona (Trump+9), Nevada (Trump+14), Pennsylvania (Trump+4), and Wisconsin (Trump +1), and trailing only in Michigan (Biden +3).
If the election were held today and these were the results, Trump would probably win with 299 or 300 electoral votes, depending on the statewide outcome in Maine, where Trump might actually be competitive this time.
Biden has all kinds of additional reasons to worry. There is no recent election to point to in which an incumbent president trailed by so much in so many key states. And public confidence in Biden’s economic stewardship is lower at this point in his presidency than it was at any point in Trump’s or Obama’s, or at this point in George W. Bush’s presidency, according to Gallup.
In this context, Trump’s campaign swing through southern New Jersey makes some sense. Yes, it raises his profile in Pennsylvania, which is the main point. But why not take the opportunity to rattle Biden’s cage, to raise morale behind enemy lines (so to speak) and perhaps even test the boundaries of how competitive that normally Democratic state can get?
Florida: A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll (see below) finds, among other things, that Trump leads Biden by nine percentage points in the Sunshine State overall. But more alarmingly for Biden, Trump is winning among the state’s Hispanic voters, 58 percent to 31 percent.
Although it is not unusual for Republicans to lead among Florida Hispanics, who are disproportionately Cuban and conservative compared to Hispanics in many other states, a lead of 27 points is well beyond anything normal and portends disaster for Biden if it reflects any sort of national trend.
For context, Barack Obama won among Hispanic voters in Florida as recently as 2012, and by 21 points. Florida appears to be well and truly off the table in this election, and it seems doubtful that any amount of resources can change that. Also, keep an eye on a red-shift among Hispanic voters in states where their votes add up, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Texas.
Conventions: Summer is almost here, and the massive pro-Palestinian protests afflicting college campuses will soon move to the party conventions. Republicans will simply ridicule them, of course, but the Democrats’ August convention in Chicago cannot afford to do so, especially given that far-left Mayor Kevin Johnson supports the protests.
Politico Magazine’s Jonathan Martin published a piece on Democratic fears about “the ghosts of 1968,” referring to the violent Democratic convention in Chicago that year. Democrats are actually talking about reducing the number of in-person events and doing a larger percentage of the campaign virtually and use pre-reccorded segments. This would be similar to what they did in the COVID year of 2020, but this time it would be a calculated strategy to minimize the protests’ profile and the hassle they could cause delegates.
Given that Biden’s and the Democrats’ major donors are the ones who have funded these campus protests, it really does appear that they have created a Frankenstein monster for themselves. (Bonus: Note the misspelling “Palenstine” in the photo.)
Senate 2024
Florida: Sometimes, a single election ends up being a turning point for a state. In Florida, this was certainly the case in 2000, after which the Republican Party shed its complacency, built up its operations, and retooled itself to become the dominant party. But it also seems to have been the case with the 2018 election, when Gov. Ron DeSantis just narrowly beat former Talahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) and Sen. Rick Scott (R) even more narrowly (by just 10,000 votes) defeated a popular Democratic incumbent, Sen. Bill Nelson.
That race appears to have broken the state’s underperforming Democratic Party for yet another generation. Now, Scott, a three-time winner in statewide Florida elections, looks like he will finally win an election by a large margin.
Scott won for governor in 2010 and 2014 by 1.3 percentage points and 1 percentage point, respectively. He won for Senate in 2018 by just two-tenths of a percentage point.
And after being blown out yet again in 2022, Florida Democrats don’t seem to be making much progress in rebuilding. Indeed, a new poll from the state Chamber of Commerce shows Scott stronger than ever, at 54 percent support and leading the presumptive Democratic nominee, Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), by an astounding 15 points.
Scott is also winning 66 percent among Hispanic voters in this survey, which is astounding. This is especially a feather in Scott’s cap, as his Ecuador-born opponent’s spokeswoman claimed last month that “Latinos are fed up with Rick Scott.” Democrats do not seem to have their finger on the Latino pulse nowadays.
Scott’s success here reflects his very persistent work to secure support among not only Cuban but also other Hispanic populations inside the state — especially Puerto Ricans, as Florida recently surpassed New York and now has more of them than any other U.S. state. Scott’s aggressive use of both English and Spanish language ads to appeal to Hispanic voters, despite his atrocious accent in Spanish, appears to be having the intended effect of introducing him sympathetically to Hispanic voters of all nationalities.
Maryland: Democrats David Trone (D) and Angela Alsobrooks (D) are in a tight race tomorrow for the nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). They will face a surprisingly competitive race against former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), although at least one survey last week threw some cold water on the idea that the general election in this deep Blue state will be competitive at all.
Texas: Rep. Colin Allred (D) suffered another own goal as “Know Your Rights” cards were distributed at one of his events instructing illegal immigrants not to speak to law enforcement and avoid being deported, offering such advice as “DO NOT OPEN THE DOOR” and “DO NOT SIGN ANYTHING.” Allred supposedly had nothing to do with it, but this is a very bad look at a time when Texans are fed up with being ground-zero in an unnecessary border crisis precipitated by the Biden administration.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R), who actually seemed like he might draw a tough race this time around, led by 13 points (albeit with just 46 percent) in the most recent survey released two weeks ago.
West Virginia: Aside from the gubernatorial primary, which could be very close between Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and Moore Capito (R), the only other race to watch (for entertainment purposes only) tomorrow is the Democratic Senate primary. Republicans will overwhelmingly nominate popular Gov. Jim Justice (R) to replace the retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D). Democrats will be choosing between two bonafide Democratic candidates and former Republican Don Blankenship, a convicted former coal CEO whose lunatic behavior over the last decade has become the stuff of legend. Any Democrats who vote for him are clearly trolling, and the identity of the Democratic nominee is unimportant.
