The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 18
This week:
- Speaker Mike Johnson’s job is probably safe for now
- Biden’s electoral picture remains grim
- Trump helps Staggs win the party endorsement in UT-SEN
Outlook
In order to guarantee passage of the Ukraine-Taiwan-Israel aid package a week ago, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) used the familiar hardball House leadership tactics that have become standard in recent decades for both parties, although the exact form that this took was somewhat different from the past.
For example, by considering all of the different aid bills and a ban on TikTok under a single rule, he created a situation where no one could form a majority against anything overall. This required extensive cooperation by Democrats, and it was highly effective. For example, it forced anti-Israel members such as Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) to cooperate in a legislative process that ultimately sent aid to Israel. It also forced many conservative members to help (even if they voted against Ukraine aid itself) continue U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
Johnson very cleverly played the anti-Israel, anti-Ukraine, and anti-China sentiments of all the different factions against them. The end result of these machinations was that no one’s objections to any one bill in the aid package were enough to sink the entire thing, and no one is on the record casting any embarrassing votes for anything that will be unpopular back home.
It is in this context that a small handful of House Republicans are talking about ousting Johnson with another motion to vacate the chair. But such a move would be highly unlikely to succeed for a number of reasons.
For one thing, Democrats could simply opt to bail Johnson out if he is otherwise short of the majority of votes he needs. Second, the conservatives most upset with him have no viable alternative choice.
But the third and main reason is Donald Trump.
Trump ensured that the Ukraine aid package would pass when Johnson managed to get his support by making part of it a loan instead of a gift. Will the loan ever be paid back? It’s highly unlikely, to say the least. But it gave Trump a way to save face and not blow up the Congress.
Some of Trump’s biggest supporters in the House — Reps. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.) and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) — and the independent-minded libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) are on the record saying they want Johnson gone. But they will not be able to topple another Speaker in the name of Trumpism without even having Trump’s support in the endeavor.
Trump himself is, of course, rarely above engaging in counterproductive feuding, but he seems practical enough in this situation to recognize that he already has firm control of the Republican Party. This, the eve of what is increasingly looking like his return to the White House, isn’t a time to rock the boat and cause a debacle on Capitol Hill that could harm his presidential campaign. There will be time for recriminations later.
President 2024
Abortion: In the meantime, the last two weeks have brought little encouragement for Joe Biden, an incumbent president whose position in the polls is as precarious as ever. Democrats have hoped the abortion issue, raised by the Dobbs decision but then resurrected more recently by Arizona’s Supreme Court, would improve their turnout and perhaps even propel Biden to a lead due to backlash in the state.
There still hasn’t been any new polling done in Arizona, Georgia, or Nevada since the ruling on April 16. But voters in most other swing states don’t seem to be cooperating with this abortion-focused plan.
For example, Trump has maintained his narrow lead in Wisconsin, where no poll has given Biden a lead since early March. A new survey taken last week in Pennsylvania gives Trump a narrow lead as well. With the exception of one extreme outlier poll, Biden has not held a lead in the Keystone State since February.
The one place with positive movement for Biden has been Michigan, although the significance of one single poll result giving him a 51-to-49 percent lead there is unclear.
But that’s not even the worst part for Biden. The thing to keep in mind here, however, is that incumbents who start out behind tend to lose. And Biden probably needs to win every single one of the above-mentioned states in order to win a second term.
Put another way: If Trump can add to his column Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia (he leads in all recent polls of these), and Nebraska’s third congressional district, he will have exactly 269 electoral votes. That would result in a tie vote for president in the Electoral College, which would send the election to the U.S. House and probably make Trump president.
If Trump wins even one of the contested Midwestern swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota) or Pennsylvania, Biden has no chance at all. He has to play perfect defense across the board in many states where, at this early date, he is already trailing. We previously referred to this as Biden’s “leaky electoral boat,” whose many holes he must plug with as many fingers as he can find.
Economy: Weighing Biden down is the widespread perception in these Midwestern states that the economy is not good now and was good under Trump, with more than 70 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin saying the economy has either “gotten worse” or “stayed the same.” This will be the classic “are you better off than you were four years ago?” election.
Foreign aid: Add to Biden’s other problems the fact that successful passage of a foreign aid bill takes away his ability to make this issue, or just House Republican chaos generally, into an election issue this fall. Meanwhile, passage of aid to Israel will not help him with the Democrats’ increasingly vocal Palestine-focused voters, who have a significant presence in Michigan and Minnesota.
Senate 2024
Michigan: Rep. Pete Meijer (R) has dropped out of the primary for this open Senate seat. The truth is, he was doomed from the moment former Rep. Justin Amash (R) decided to run. There could have been a lane for one candidate who voted to impeach Trump in a Republican primary, but there certainly cannot be room for two such Republicans in the same primary.
The heavy favorite is former Rep. Mike Rodgers (R).
Utah: Brent Hatch (R), son of the former longtime senator, has been eliminated from the Republican primary for his father’s old seat, having failed either to win the party endorsement at the convention over the weekend or to gain the required signatures to make the ballot.
Meanwhile, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R) won the party endorsement, in part thanks to a late statement of support by Trump.
The party endorsement, on its own, is no guarantee of anything — it wasn’t when Romney narrowly failed to get it in 2018. But with Trump’s support plus the party endorsement, Staggs has the inside track to the nomination. The Democratic nominee chosen at convention is environmental activist Caroline Gleich.
