The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 8
This Week:
- Nikki Haley’s zombie campaign
- Biden probably can’t be replaced
- Rosendale gets out as quickly as he got in
President 2024
Nikki Haley: Donald Trump’s victory in this coming Saturday’s GOP primary in South Carolina is considered almost a foregone conclusion. All signs point to Trump crushing former Gov. Nikki Haley in her own home state.
So why is Haley choosing to remain in the race, after missing with her best shot against Trump in New Hampshire? Here’s a hint: Under Nevada state party rules, just by appearing on the primary ballot, Haley had already disqualified herself from winning any delegates in the Silver State’s caucuses two days later. The fact that she lost to “None of the Above” in the primary was an added humiliation. But the important takeaway is that she was more interested in a public relations win than she was in gaining the delegates she will need to stop Trump at the convention this July in Milwaukee.
If Haley is not trying to beat Trump at the convention, then what is she doing? The simplest explanation is that she is hanging in there, waiting for something — a criminal conviction, perhaps — to knock Trump out, leaving her as the most plausible replacement.
The problem is, enough bad blood has developed between her and Trump over the last two or three months that, even in the unlikely event that Trump were to drop out, she would almost certainly not be the person picked by delegates to replace him, given that so many of the delegates will be Trump delegates. It is far more likely that they would back one of the other dropouts who have already suspended their campaigns, or even some unexpected dark horse candidate endorsed by Trump himself.
This does not bode well either for her accession to the nomination or to her receiving a cabinet post in a second Trump administration. This makes her campaign a zombie — a dead being that somehow still has some semblance of life but really no hope for the future.
Trump vs. Biden: Biden’s badly-received trip to East Palestine, Ohio is just another indication of the trouble he faces as an incumbent seeking re-election. There are multiple polls indicating as much. Trump leads Biden in seven and ties him in two of the last 11 national polls.
And bear in mind that a tie is probably as good as a win, given the electoral vote count that actually matters. The former swing states of Iowa, Ohio, and Florida seem to be almost off the table. New surveys released last week by Fox News show Biden trailing Trump in the key swing states of Michigan (by two points) and in North Carolina (by five points) — both of which would be serious underperformances by Biden compared to 2020. Fox polls from the beginning of February, as we noted previously, had shown Biden trailing in Georgia (by eight points), and tied in Wisconsin, both states he won in 2020. Marquette also had Biden tied in Wisconsin, but losing badly when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included in the ballot test.
These results, with or without Arizona (where Trump has led in every poll since August) are enough for an Electoral College victory, irrespective of the national vote count.
Biden’s persistently poor performance, along with the ongoing incidents that heigten speculation over his mental acuity, have some commentators speaking about his replacement on the ballot as some kind of great likelihood. Anything can happen, but we do not anticipate such a thing.
If Biden is ultimately removed, it will risk a massive rebellion by black voters, who crowned him in the first place and remain his only loyal constituency of support. Their rebellion may be accentuated still further by the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris is almost certain to be passed over in favor of a white candidate (perhaps Gavin Newsom or even Hillary Clinton) if party bosses choose a nominee. Harris is even less popular than Biden, after all. And speculation that Michelle Obama will run is not credible, in our view, given that she is as vocally hateful of political life in private as she is in public, according to all available accounts.
As former South Carolina Congressman and Trump Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney has argued, figures such as Barack Obama and James Clyburn will have to turn against Biden before he can be forced to give up the nomination. So until that happens, don’t bet on Biden coming off the ballot.
Even then, his late replacement would evince chaos within the Democratic Party and confirm that Democrats have been lying about Biden’s mental acuity all along. Democratic leaders will likely calculate that these two factors, but especially the potential rebellion by black voters, would make his removal from the ballot a net negative for their party — an own-goal.
Senate 2024
Indiana: The state Supreme Court has opened the way (for now) for party bosses to exclude John Rust from the ballot in his outsider bid to beat Rep. Jim Banks (R) for the party’s nomination for U.S. Senate. A final decision has not come down yet, but it is unlikely that the court would have taken the action it took last week if it were planning to make Republicans leave Rust on the ballot.
The issue in question is a law requiring primary candidates either to have voted in their party’s primary in the last two consecutive elections, or to get an exemption from local party leaders.
Rust faces exclusion because he voted in the Democratic primary in 2016, and hasn’t voted in a Republican primary since. His county party chairwoman has declined to grant him the exemption.
Maryland: As we mentioned last week, Maryland has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1980. However, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is in surprisingly strong position, at least according to one poll. Emerson College has Hogan leading Prince George’s County Angela Alsobrooks (D), 44 to 37 percent, and tied with Rep. David Trone (D), who represents the state’s relatively conservative panhandle, at 42 percent.
Montana: Rep. Matt Rosendale (R) jumped into the race for U.S. Senate, and then just as quickly he jumped right back out. The reason? Donald Trump’s endorsement of his primary opponent, retired Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy (R). “With Trump endorsing my opponent and the lack of resources, the hill was just too steep,” he said in a statement. This is welcome news for Republicans, who will avoid a nasty and brutish fight ahead of the always deceptively tricky battle to unseat Sen. Jon Tester (D).
Then again, Republicans still have a long way to go with their political newcomer candidate against a seasoned and battle-hardened opponent. One local media poll shows Tester riding high at 49 percent and leading Sheehy by nine points. The good news is that there is a lot of time for him to build name recognition.
