The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 6
This week:
- Biden might need a miracle
- A Trump conviction might not be enough
- New hope for Cruz?
President 2024
Trump-Biden: As we noted last week, President Joe Biden has for months now trailed Donald Trump in every poll in the states of Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. These four are all states that Biden won in 2020, and together they will account for 48 electoral votes in 2024.
Combined with the states Trump actually won in 2020, that is more than enough (283 in all) to make Trump president again, even if he fails to win New Hampshire, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.
In short, therefore, Biden faces some daunting political math. Trump will be taking the battle to his territory from day one, aggressively trying to push those latter three states (a combined 33 electoral votes) into his column, especially Wisconsin (10 EVs).
But the more significant fact is that Trump appears to be opening up a national lead, something he never did in 2020. The NBC News poll released over the weekend had him leading Biden by five percentage points nationally, 47 to 42 percent. Bear in mind that Trump has never won the popular vote, and he would be almost guaranteed an election victory if he somehow did so.
For context, Trump led in just two (2) out of more than 220 polls taken between February and November of 2020, and tied Biden in two others. So the fact that he has led in seven out of the last ten polls (Biden leads in two and they tie in one) is a massive red flag for Biden. Obviously it is still early, but he finds himself in a much worse starting position in 2024 than he was in 2020.
The reasons for Biden’s troubles are many and varied. From a demographic perspective, Trump has pulled even with him among Hispanic voters (leading 42 to 41 percent) and voters under age 34 at (42 percent each).
From an issue perspective, Biden trails Trump by 35 points on “securing the border,” by 23 points on “necessary mental and physical health to be president,” by 22 points on “dealing with the economy, and by 21 points on “crime and violence.” The only issues where Biden has a lead outside the margin of error are abortion (by 12 points) and “protecting migrants’ rights.”
With numbers like these, the only truly incredible thing is that Biden is polling as well as he is. But at 42 percent — far below 50 — and trailing his opponent by any amount, he looks a lot like any other incumbent on his way to losing re-election.
Trump conviction question: But there is a much more important result in this poll. We have only been able to speculate at this point on how it would affect the race if Trump were convicted of any of the criminal charges against him. This poll gives us at least a partial answer.
It appears that Biden’s ace in the hole — a Trump conviction on any of the criminal charges leveled against him — would not guarantee a Biden victory. In the event that Trump is convicted on at least one count, the numbers shift only slightly toward Biden, giving him a lead of 45 to 43 percent. That’s a close race. A five-point Trump lead, on the other hand, is a not-close race.
One noteworthy takeaway, however, is that younger voters break sharply for Biden (by 15 points) in this conviction scenario. So do Hispanics, whose margin shifts toward Biden by 11 points.
Michigan: Biden’s situation in Michigan has been rather disorienting. Despite the great trouble he faces there in the polls, he has been loath to make campaign visits, for fear that the state’s robust Muslim population would heckle and boo him in public for his support of Israel’s retaliatory campaign against Hamas in Gaza.
Biden went to Michigan nonetheless, and the predictable happened. Protestors bearing Palestinian flags and condemnations of “genocide Joe” greeted him.
Meanwhile, the union vote, still very powerful in Michigan, seems to be very much up in the air compared to past election cycles. The Biden administration’s green-energy policies are crushing U.S. automakers, which are losing tens of thousands of dollars for each electric vehicle they sell. Although UAW officials insist that their members will vote for Biden, in what numbers will they do so?
The race for the Great Lakes State will be one of the most closely watched in 2024, between the competitive presidential contest and the open U.S. Senate seat. The opportunities for Republicans are great here. It’s just that the state Republican Party is going to have to get through a messy fight over who is actually in charge before they have any chance of exploiting them.
Senate 2024
Michigan: Former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) announced an anemic fundraising total for the fourth quarter of last year — only $60,581. This casts into question how serious his candidacy really is. The lack of funds is certainly odd, since Craig formally announced his candidacy all the way back in early October and has been considered a top contender for the nomination. Recall that his 2022 campaign for governor crashed and burned based on failure to submit enough signatures.
He faces former Reps. Pete Meijer (who can self-fund) and Mike Rodgers, both of whom have raised six- and seven-figure amounts. Justin Amash, who only just announced his bid.
Ohio: The good news for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)? He leads all three of his prospective Republican opponents in a new survey. The bad news? He only clocks in at 38 or 39 percent against any of them. That is a losing level for an incumbent, and vindicates the conventional wisdom that this is the second-most likely seat to flip from Democrat to Republican in 2024 after Montana.
Pennsylvania: Would a race between former hedge fund manager David McCormick (R) and Sen. Bob Casey (D) be competitive? It depends on which polling firm within the state you ask.
According to Susquehana, the answer is yes — McCormick starts out trailing, 46 to 42 percent. According to Franklin and Marshall, not at all — he trails 47 to 35 percent.
This race isn’t on the table yet for Republicans, but it could get there under the right conditions, and depending on which of these surveys is more reflective of what’s really going on.
Texas: Perhaps things are not quite as bad for Sen. Ted Cruz (R) as recent polling made them seem. A new poll from the University of Houston has Cruz at 48 to 39 percent over his most likely opponent, Rep. Colin Allred (D). Incidentally, the same survey shows Trump with a similar nine-point lead in the Lone Star State, one of the places where he has historically underperformed other Republicans but done well enough to win.
This new result stands in sharp contrast with the recent Emerson College poll showing in “Joe Biden” territory, with just 42 percent and a two-point lead.
State Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D), who is challenging Allred for the nomination, was secretly recorded stating that Allred cannot win because he is not Hispanic. Allred is black.
House 2024
Indiana-5: Rep. Victoria Spartz (R) has formally announced her change of mind Monday morning that she will be running for re-election after all. Her decision to retire had been one of several retirements framed by the media as evidence that the U.S. House was in disarray. Go figure.
New York-3 Special: Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) has more than three times as much cash on hand as Mazi Pilip (R) in the closing days of the race to replace expelled former Rep. George Santos (R). The election on Long Island takes place Feb. 13.
