The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 3
This Week:
- Trump wins a resounding Iowa victory
- Brand new poll of N.H. shows a Trump-Haley tie
- Michigan Senate race could be legitimately competitive
President 2024
Iowa caucuses: Donald Trump won a resounding victory in last night’s Iowa caucuses. As we expected, this was nothing like the amateurish effort his campaign put forward in 2016, when he lost the state to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and was forced into a do-or-die scenario in the subsequent New Hampshire primary.
It is obvious, but this year’s Republican primary is nothing like that of 2016. At that time, Trump was an outsider trying to force his way into the Republican field. Today, Trump is a former president, the 2,000-pound gorilla in every room where any two Republicans are having a conversation. He is also massively popular in Iowa, a former swing-state that became solidly Red after he was ultimately nominated in 2016.
Not only did Trump surpass 50 percent support and win 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties last night, but he also had the good fortune of seeing his strongest and second strongest challengers almost tie one another. The result will be awkward because neither will drop out.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) did well just to finish as a distant second in Iowa behind Trump, at about 21 percent, far behind Trump’s roughly 50 percent. And former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) did quite well to finish with 19 percent, despite the fact that she was not really competing in Iowa and had focused her resources in New Hampshire.
Advantage Trump: But think of this outcome from Trump’s perspective. DeSantis staked everything on Iowa. If Haley had beaten him there, then the Florida governor would be dropping out, and she would be entering next Tuesday’s New Hampshire contest with much more momentum as the only real non-Trump candidate in town.
Instead, although Haley remains a credible threat in New Hampshire, she will have to contend with a crowded and divided field. Multiple relatively strong Trump opponents will remain in the race for at least a couple more weeks — DeSantis has very low expectations in New Hampshire anyway — with apparently false hopes of stopping Trump. And Trump’s most pro-Trump opponent, Vivek Ramaswamy, has dropped out and endorsed Trump, which also won’t help her cause..
The long and the short of it is that there will be no consolidation of the anti-Trump Republican vote. The only non-Trump candidate at this point is still probably Haley, but if we’re being honest with ourselves, the only non-Trump candidate at this point is Trump himself. He is effectively the Republican nominee as of this date.
The former president’s path to the nomination, always a smooth glide-path is now a metaphorical King’s highway. Almost every poll shows that most American voters do not want a Trump-Biden rematch. But that is exactly what they are going to get. The only thing that could change it at this point is some unlikely legal calamity which prevents Trump from making an effective run at the presidency and forces the overwhelmingly pro-Trump delegates who will dominate this summer’s convention to pick someone else.
Ron DeSantis: Florida’s governor had the perfect resume for the presidency. He came in with a key state nailed down in the electoral college, a track record of genuine conservative accomplishments, and a winning election history. He successfully took on the far-left culture warriors in his state at the time of peak wokeness. Everything about him seemed right on paper.
But the timing of DeSantis’s political career just wasn’t right. Trump believes himself entitled to the Republican nomination, and Iowa’s caucusgoers wholeheartedly agree with him. Based on what few surveys there are of Republicans in states after New Hampshire, they are probably not alone.
Although Trump only won narrowly among college-educated Republicans — 35 percent to Haley’s 33 percent — he carried 65 percent of non-college Republicans, according to the exit polling. DeSantis was a distant third with college-educated caucusgoers, who made up about half of participants, at 23 percent.
DeSantis did everything he could have as a candidate. He concentrated on what seemed like the best state for him — a state that Trump had lost in 2016. But It wasn’t enough in the new Republican Party, rebuilt in Trump’s image and likeness.
Trump’s supporters within the party are legion, and they want to see him head the ballot once again. There is no room for DeSantis, who legally could not even be Trump’s running mate If they were both willing, given that the Constitution requires that the president and vice president be residents of different states.
Although he has not yet dropped out of the race, DeSantis needs to start thinking about next steps for a career in the post-Trump Republican Party.
Nikki Haley: Unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. The next step in this year’s low-key nominating process is the Jan. 23 first-in-the nation primary in New Hampshire. Haley’s relatively strong performance in Iowa could still help her significantly.
A new poll from American Research Group, which is based in Manchester, finds her tied with Trump there at 40 percent. (DeSantis, who chose not to put resources into the Granite State, polls at just 4 percent.) Haley seems to be the chief beneficiary of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) exit from the race last week.
In a drawn-out primary head-to-head against Trump, it is difficult to imagine Haley prevailing, even in her home state of South Carolina, where Trump is quite popular. But to beat Trump in New Hampshire — an amazing upset if she can pull it off — at least opens up that possibility. She probably has no path forward without it.
Although she came in third in Iowa, Haley was correct in saying that the Iowa result makes this a two-person race between her and Trump. But even if she succeeds next Tuesday, it will be a two-person race where Trump is a heavy favorite.
Senate 2024
Arizona: It is a Democratic poll, but a new PPP survey commissioned by a group specifically targeting the incumbent finds Kari Lake (R) performing better than most other polls so far in the race for the Senate seat currently occupied by former Democrat Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). In a three-way race, the survey finds that Lake trails the presumptive Democratic nominee, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) 36 to 35 percent, with Sinema taking a mere 17 percent.
The poll, commissioned by the left-wing group Replace Sinema PAC, finds that in a head-to-head race with Gallego, Lake actually leads, 46 to 45 percent.
Joe Biden’s approval in Arizona, according to this Democratic poll, is far underwater at 40 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval, but he still narrowly leads Trump, 47 to 46 percent.
Michigan: Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan in 30 years, but they might have a real chance this year at the open seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).
A new local television station’s (WDIV) survey, whose toplines admittedly evince a failure to ask the preferences of leaners, found the presumptive Democratic nominee, Rep. Elisa Slotkin (D), trailing former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), 38 to 36 percent, tied with former Grand Rapids-area Congressman Pete Meijer (R) at 36 percent, and just ahead of former Lansing-area Congressman Mike Rogers (R) at 38 to 37 percent.
Republicans have previously fielded credible candidates for Senate in Michigan, but they haven’t done especially well. This looks by far like their best chance since Spencer Abraham (R) won his seat for a single term in 1994.
The same survey finds Trump leading President Biden in the Great Lakes State by a massive 47 to 39 percent in a head-to-head contest, and by 12 points if third-party candidates were given as options. This could indicate a skewed sample, but Biden really is that unpopular elsewhere. Also, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (who is not on the ballot) beats Trump in a hypothetical matchup in the same survey.
The concern for Michigan Republicans is that their party is in a bit of chaos right now after a disputed vote to oust its chairwoman. They will need to get their act together in order to put the best possible foot forward in 2024.
