The Briefing, Vol. XI, Issue 47
This week:
- Democrats have ten out of ten reasons to be nervous about Biden
- Vast majority believe Biden should not run
- Sheehy takes a lead in Montana’s Senate race
President 2024
Democrats: No one is putting too much stock in the news, but Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is not seeking re-election to the U.S. House. This is significant because he is running a longshot campaign for president against Joe Biden in the Democratic primary.
Why is he giving up a safe House seat for this low-percentage venture? Maybe he is just tired of Congress. But there could be more to it.
This does not signify that Phillips has a greater chance of winning. In fact, if Biden drops out for some reason, the smart money is on California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to jump in and bigfoot Phillips. But Phillips’ candidacy does exemplify the difficulty that Democrats now face. Their almost-certain nominee is losing in ten out of the last ten national polls against Donald Trump, in spite of the latter’s four criminal indictments, his civil fraud trial, and his typically low approval numbers.
The recent Messenger/HarrisX poll of 3,000 registered voters, released Nov. 22, gives some indication of just how bad the situation is for Biden. The raw total shows 47 percent supporting Trump before leaners, a seven-point lead over the incumbent. For an incumbent president 40 percent is an appalling topline number in any poll, but for him to trail someone as controversial as Trump by seven points, and to do no better than 40, is astonishing.
That’s only the beginning of the bad news for Biden. When leaners are added into this survey, they split almost evenly, such that Trump rises to 53 percent for a six point lead over Biden. But the relatively small difference here indicates an electorate that is largely set in stone. Biden has only a tiny audience to appeal to, and he has to win nearly everyone in it.
Here’s another problem for Biden: Trump has shown that he can win the election without a national lead. He lost the national popular vote by two points in 2016.
The chances of Biden winning an Electoral College victory without a national vote majority are very slim, just given the way the country is divided geographically. Trump, on the other hand, already did this once, and he came very close to doing it a second time. He doesn’t even have to lead in national polls to win, yet he is leading by six or seven points, depending on how you count it.
Additional bad news: Only 39 percent approve of the job Biden is doing as president and only 16 percent “strongly approve.” Fifty-seven percent disapprove of Biden, and 40 percent “strongly disapprove.”
And on and on: Biden still trails Trump by roughly the same margin (seven points, or six with leanders) when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy and Cornel West are added into the mix. Finally, even when given these four choices, only about 11 percent of respondents appear to be undecided at this early stage.
Sixty-seven percent of respondents, including 40 percent of Democrats, believe Biden should not run for a second term, compared to just 55 percent who don’t want Trump to run.
This is just one of many polls with similarly depressing numbers for Biden released in the last two and a half weeks. The Emerson College poll released the same day showed Trump widening his lead to four points and Biden’s approval rating plunging to 38 percent. Meanwhile, Republicans also lead on the generic Congressional ballot, a measurement that usually tilts Democratic.
All this comes despite Trump’s legal woes, despite Biden’s $39 million in television spending (as of Nov. 2) and $10 million in online ads, despite the media’s pro-Biden tilt, despite continued low unemployment at less than 4 percent, and despite the administration’s attempts to rebrand the economic situation with fancy terms like “Bidenomics.”
Biden, whose numbers began their plunge with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, is being undone by increases in the cost of living, the resultant high interest rates, his apparent decline in mental acuity, and dissatisfaction with his policies on a myriad of issues, ranging from foreign policy to immigration.
The question at this point is how he can right the ship if all of this advertising so far has gone for naught. But there is one more potentially debilitating hurdle for him up ahead. He will not be appearing on the ballot of the New Hampshire primary, in protest of the state Democratic Party’s insistence on defining the DNC and holding it first on Jan. 23.
In this environment, it is not at all difficult to imagine Biden’s Granite State supporters losing their write-in campaign on his behalf. If the voters pick someone else — say, Marianne Williamson or Phillips — it will be a humiliating black eye for the sitting president.
Governor 2024
West Virginia: With its Senate race likely uncompetitive due to Joe Manchin’s retirement (more below), an early survey by WMOV Radio hints at a potentially very competitive race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in the Mountain State.
Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who lost to Manchin for Senate in 2018, leads Moore Capito (R) (son of the state’s junior senator and grandson of a former governor), 31 percent to 23 percent, with 14 percent supporting Secretary of State Mac Warner (R) and 10 percent behind businessman Chris Miller (R), who owns a prominent automotive dealership group in the state.
The Republican nominee will be heavily favored to win the general election. Election Day is May 14.
Senate 2024
Montana: After multiple surveys showing conservative upstart Rep. Matt Rosendale (R) with a sizable lead in the GOP primary, a new survey must have the party establishment and also Trump-world smiling. Tim Sheehy (R), a retired Navy SEAL and the party’s preferred nominee to take on Sen. Jon Tester (D), leads Rosendale, 40 percent to 24 percent in a new poll of the race.
This is the second poll so far this month showing Sheehy with a lead. The first one, which was commissioned by a PAC supporting Sheehy, showed a closer race at 44 percent for Sheehy and 41 percent for Rosendale.
Experience has shown that primary electorates are far more fluid than general electorates. Given a field with multiple candidates who roughly share their values and ideals, voters are far more likely to change their minds given additional information or campaigning. Donald Trump, who personally dislikes Rosendale, and NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, who happens to be Montana’s senior U.S. senator, share an interest in a Sheehy victory.
Surveys indicate that either Sheehy or Rosendale would be competitive against Tester, although Rosendale narrowly lost to him in his last re-election race, in 2018. With West Virginia now a likely GOP pickup, this has become the most important Senate race in the U.S., perhaps followed by Ohio.
West Virginia: The same poll mentioned above showed Gov. Jim Justice (R) easily leading his primary opponent, conservative Rep. Alex Mooney (R), 56 percent to 20 percent. That’s no surprise, given Justice’s popularity, and it only confirms what other polls have shown.
