Conservative Intel guide to Election 2022

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 22: U.S. President Joe Biden participates in a virtual meeting about mineral supply chains and clean energy manufacturing in the South Court Auditorium of the White House complex February 22, 2022 in Washington, DC. Earlier in the day, President Biden spoke about the Ukraine-Russia crisis and announced a first round of sanctions against Russia. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

The Briefing, Vol. X, Issue 45

This week: 

  • It’s election day
  • Our final predictions
  • A Republican sweep is in the offing 


What follows is our election guide for following the results tomorrow. 

In the Senate, we expect Republicans to win a majority of at least 52 seats.

In the House, we expect Republicans to gain 26 seats for a total of 239.

Last polls close:

7:00 pm EST

Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will easily win re-election over election denialist and conspiracy theorist Stacey Abrams (D). The tight Senate race between Herschel Walker (R) and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) may go to runoff. Either way, we expect Walker to finish with more votes and, ultimately, to win. Keep an eye on the Macon-based rural second district, where Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) is struggling and could potential lose if the Republican wave is larger than we think. Expected House tally: 9R-5D (change of +1R, -1D) 

Indiana: No important statewide races. The one House race to watch is the first district in northwest Indiana, where underdog Jennifer-Ruth Green (R) stands a chance of upsetting Rep. Frank Mrvan (D). Expected House tally: 7R-2D (no change)

Kentucky: No important statewide races. Expected House tally: 5R-1D (no change). 

South Carolina: Sen. Tim Scott and Gov. Henry McMaster (R) are both a lock for re-election. .

Expected House tally: 6R-1D (no change)

Vermont: Gov. Phil Scott (R) should cruise to re-election. Expected House tally: 1D (no change)

Virginia: No statewide races. Three House seats could flip from Democrat to Republican, however. These include the second, seventh, and tenth districts, in order of likelihood. We expect Republicans to win the first two, defeating Reps. Elaine Luria (D) and Abigail Spanberger (D). Expected House tally: 6R-5D (change of +2R, -2D)

7:30 pm EST

North Carolina: Ted Budd (R) should easily win this open-seat Senate race, defending a Republican seat. But Republicans will cede ground in the House thanks to a gerrymander by the state’s Supreme Court, which is currently being challenged. In the state’s competitive open seventh district, Republican Bo Hines should defeat Wiley Nickel (D).  Expected House tally: 8R-6D (change of +1D)

Ohio: J.D. Vance has the Senate race locked away, and Mike DeWine will easily win re-election. Republicans will come up short in the Toledo-based ninth district, due to candidate quality, but they will take over the eastern Ohio seat that Tim Ryan left to run for Senate. Expected House tally: 12R-3D (change of -1D)

West Virginia: The Mountain State lost one House seat, meaning it will send one less Republican to Washington. Expected House tally: 2R (change of -1R)

8:00 pm EST

Alabama: Katie Britt (R) will easily retain the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, and Gov. Kay Ivey will cruise to victory. Expected House tally: 6R-1D (no change)

Connecticut: Some late polls indicate that Sen. Richard Blumenthal is in a competitive Senate race, but don’t get your hopes up. On the other hand, we like Republican George Logan’s chances at retaking the fifth district, which Republicans lost in 2006.  Expected House tally: 1R-4D (change of +1R, -1D)

Delaware: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 1D (no change)

Florida: Republicans are expected to blow the doors off the Sunshine State this year in terms of turnout. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) may even carry Miami-Dade County, if the composition of the early vote is any indication. Sen. Marco Rubio will easily win re-election. Republicans will pick up four House seats, including the St. Petersburg-area seat being vacated by DeSantis’ opponent, former Rep. Charlie Crist (D). They have an outside chance at a fifth, although we still expect that Jared Moskowitz (D) will hold on to the seat that was vacated by Rep. Ted Deutch (D) earlier this year. Expected House tally: 20R-8D (change of +4R, -3D)

Illinois: No competitive statewide races. The House map was drawn to elect Republicans in just three out of 17 districts. However, we believe they will win four, including the Democrat-leaning 17th.  Expected House tally: 4R-13D (change of -1R)

Maine: Former Gov. Paul LePage (R) will fail in his political comeback bid for his old office, but we believe that former Rep. Bruce Poliquin will succeed in his amid heavy Republican turnout in the second district. Expected House tally: 1R, 1D (change of +1R, -1D)

Maryland: No competitive statewide races. Republicans have an outside shot at regaining the western sixth district House seat, but the dead weight of the party’s gubernatorial nominee will probably extinguish that hope. Expected House tally: 1R-7D (no change)

Massachusetts: Democrats will easily reclaim the governor’s office. Expected House tally: 9D (no change)

Mississippi: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 3R-1D (no change)

Missouri: Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R) should easily retain the Senate seat of the retiring Roy Blunt. Expected House tally: 6R-2D (no change)

New Hampshire: Gov. Chris Sununu (R) will easily win re-election. With a series of polls showing him closing the gap, there is an outside chance that Donald Bolduc (R) will indeed overtake and defeat Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Karoline Leavitt (R) should also defeat Rep. Chris Pappas (D) in the first district. Expected House tally: (change of +1R, -1D)

New Jersey: Thomas Kean Jr. should defeat Rep. Tom Malinowski (D). Expected House tally 3R-9D: (change of R+1, D-1)

Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is in a closer race than expected against party-switcher Joy Hoffmeister (D). He should still win, and both Republican U.S. Senate candidates will win as well. Expected House tally: 5R (no change)

Pennsylvania: Although the race is so close that any prediction is probably more like a guess, we continue to believe that Mehmet Oz will defeat John Fetterman and hold this Republican Senate seat. Unlike many other Republican senatorial candidates, Oz is running against the headwinds of a losing gubernatorial candidate, Doug Mastriano. But Republicans should still gain two Democratic House seats in Eastern Pennsylvania and another outside Pittsburgh. If the win the one inside Pittsburgh — not impossibly, but unlikely — it’s a sign that a real bloodbath is underway. Expected House tally: 11R-6D (change of R+2, D-3)

Rhode Island: Allan Fung should secure the first Republican victory for a House seat in many decades. Expected House tally: 1R-1D (change of R+1, D-1)

Tennessee: The state legislature drew former Rep. Jim Cooper (D) into a Republican-leaning seat, and he responded by retiring. Expected House tally: 8R, 1D (change of R+1, D-1)

8:30 pm EST

Arkansas: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 4R (no change)

9:00 pm EST

Arizona: Democrats are going to regret promoting Kari Lake as the Republican gubernatorial nominee when she wins over the hapless Katie Hobbs (D). Meanwhile, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is in the political fight of his life and may lose to Republican Blake Masters, in part thanks to Lake’s coattails. In the House, Republicans undid a Democratic gerrymander (achieved through a “non-partisan” redistricting panel) that packed most Republican voters into three districts. They will gain two seats here as a consequence. Expected House tally: 6R-3D (change of R+2, D-2)

Colorado: Gov. Jared Polis (D) will easily win re-election. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is favored to win narrowly, although he could be one of the victims in the event of a Red Tsunami. Republicans will pick up the new eighth district House seat and hold all of their current House seats. Expected House tally: 4R-4D (change of R+1)

Iowa: Both Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) will easily win re-election. Republicans will pick up the southwestern third district seat by defeating Rep. Cindy Axne (D). Expected House tally: 4R (change of R+1, D-1)

Kansas: Republican Derek Schmidt could edge out Gov. Laura Kelly (D), but it’s going to require some big Republican turnout. Democratic Rep. Sharice David is now favored to survive.  Expected House tally: 3R-1D (no change)

Louisiana: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 5R-1D (no change)

Michigan: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is having a much rougher time than we ever expected, with polls showing her tied or defeating Tudor Dixon (R) by just a couple of points. If she is in trouble, then so is every Democrat in the state who faces a close race, including the Democratic House candidates in the third and seventh districts. Expected House tally: 8R-5D (change of R+1, D-2)

Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz (D) should win re-election, but the race to unseat Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) might be a lot more interesting.  Expected House tally: 4R-4D (no change)

Nebraska: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 3R (no change)

New Mexico: Mark Ronchetti (R) has an outside chance of beating Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), but he will likely fall short. Expected House tally: 1R-2D (no change)

New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has said and done everything possible to lose her election, and that leaves Rep. Lee Zeldin in a position to upset her tomorrow. Because Democrats’ gerrymandering attempts went awry in their own state courts, they will actually lose ground in the Empire State. Expected House tally: 9R-17D (change of R+1, D-2)

North Dakota: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 1R (no change)

South Dakota: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 1R (no change)

Texas: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will win re-election over Beto O’Rourke (D). Meanwhile, Republicans will pick up two formerly Democratic U.S. House seats in South Texas. By the end of the decade, they will hold all three of these Hispanic-majority South Texas seats. Expected House tally: 26R, 12D (change of R+3, D-1)

Wisconsin: Sen. Ron Johnson (R) will win re-election, and, in a much closer race, Tim Michel (R) will narrowly defeat incumbent Gov. Tony Evers. Republican Derrick Van Orden will pick up the Democratic House seat in the state’s southwest, thanks to the retirement of longtime Rep. Ron Kind. Expected House tally: (change of R+1, D-1)

Wyoming: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 1R (no change)

10:00 pm EST

Montana: Montana gained a House seat, and it means one more Republican in Congress. Expected House tally: 2R (change of R+1)

Nevada: Republican gubernatorial nominee Joe Lombardo and Republican Senate nominee Adam Laxalt should win. All three of the Democrat-held House districts are potentially winnable, and we believe Republicans can win two of them tomorrow — the first and third. Expected House tally: 3R, 1D (change of R+2, D-2)

Utah: Sen. Mike Lee (R) had a bit of a scare in his race against independent Evan McMullin, but he should cruise to victory. Expected House tally: 4R (no change)

11:00 pm EST

California: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will win easily in spite of this population-losing state’s many problems. California lost a House seat, and in the end it will be a Democratic seat. Expected House tally: 11R-41D (change of D-1)

Idaho: No competitive races. Expected House tally: 2R (no change) 

Oregon: The governor’s race is too close to call, with Republican Christine Drazan narrowly favored over Democrat Tina Kotek. Republicans will pick up the new and open fifth district U.S. House seat. Expected House tally: 2R-4D (change of R+1) 

Washington: There is an outside chance that Republican Tiffany Smiley defeats Sen. Patty Murray (D), but only in the absolute best-case scenario for Senate Republicans. Expected House tally: 3R-7D (no change) 

12:00 am EST

Alaska: Expect the counting to take weeks in all races. The three-way race involving Kelly Tshibaka and Lisa Murkowski will result in a Republican win either way. Liberal Mary Peltola (D) will probably win again narrowly  in her House race once second preferences are counted, thanks mostly to Sarah Palin’s (R) endorsement of her over their Republican opponent Nick Begich (R). Expected House tally: 1D (no change)

Hawaii: : No competitive races. Expected House tally: 2D (no change)