Scott Brown Pulls Ahead of Shaheen

Perhaps it was her refusal to answer whether she had voted for Barack Obama or maybe her rude interruption of Scott Brown’s closing debate statement or perhaps that Scott Brown is just that much more likable. Whatever the case, Jeanne Shaheen is no longer safe.

The Democrat Senator from New Hampshire had for weeks on-end a fairly comfortable lead well outside the margin of error, despite that the state remained in RCP’s toss-up column.

But perhaps RCP saw something most didn’t: Shaheen’s vulnerability in arguably the worst election cycle Democrats have seen in 20 years after the massive takeover by Republicans in 1994.

In the last two weeks, Republican Scott Brown has been closing the gap steadily precisely at the time when voters were making their final decisions between the two.

According to a New England College survey, Brown has pulled ahead by 1.5 points. Though well within the margin of error, this is unwelcome news for Shaheen with only a week left until voters pull the lever.

It should be expected that Democrats are reading the same numbers as Republicans and see the downside for their party in terms of voter turnout. Assuming no rampant voter fraud, a tie in most races this election cycle is looking like a Republican win.