Cruz to the rescue

Cruz to the rescue

The Briefing, Vol. IV, Issue 10-

To: Our readers

  • This week’s primaries
  • Super Cruzday
  • Is Rubio done for?

Delegate Count (AP estimate) — 1,237 to win, 1,589 yet to be awarded

Donald Trump: 382
Ted Cruz: 300
Marco Rubio: 151
John Kasich: 37
Released from dropouts: 14

This week’s primaries — Mar. 8

Idaho will divide 23 of its 32 delegates proportionally among candidates who receive the 20 percent minimum threshold statewide, and six others proportionally by Congressional District, again only to candidates who meet the statewide threshold. Three bonus delegates are pledged to the winner. If any candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, he gets all of the state’s delegates.

Michigan allocates its 56 bound delegates proportionally to candidates who reach the 15 percent minimum threshold statewide. There are three bonus delegates for the winner. Again, a winner above 50 percent of the vote takes all.

Mississippi allocates 28 of its 40 delegates proportionally among the candidates who get at least 15 percent of the vote statewide. The rest are awarded by Congressional Districts — a 2-1 split between the first and second place finisher, unless someone gets more than 50 percent in a given district.

Hawaii Republicans caucus at 6 p.m. their time (which is the following day for most Americans). Six of their 19 delegates are allocated proportionally by Congressional District, and the rest proportionally statewide.

President 2016

The voters decide: In European elections, it often happens that voters choose someone who isn’t their favorite, with a mind toward producing a desired outcome. American voters rarely engage in such tactical voting on a mass scale. They pick a candidate and stick to him — sometimes even after he’s dropped out already. (Looking at you, Carson voters.)

But on Saturday, the voters in four states did something that very much resembled tactical voting. And they seem to have done it spontaneously, sending a very clear signal about the direction of the presidential race.

Saturday was Super Cruzday — the day it became clear that Donald Trump is not unstoppable and can be beaten even in states where he seems to be polling well. With all candidates committed to staying in the race, and the party elders unwilling or unable to rally around an adequate alternative to Trump, the voters all but made up their minds for them.

Once the votes were counted, The New York Times’ Nate Cohn posted a chart comparing his publication’s projections for Tuesday’s results, based on polling and state fundamentals, juxtaposed with each candidate’s performance in each state.

Screenshot 2016-03-06 at 4.00.27 PM

The visual is dramatic. Donald Trump slumped a bit in two of the Saturday states, but the projections about his performance turned out to be pretty accurate on the whole. (Perhaps for the wrong reasons, as we will discuss below.) The key takeaway is that Marco Rubio collapsed across the map, and Cruz picked up everything he and Trump lost, and then some.

The argument Cruz brought into CPAC, and which has also mentioned in the last two debates, is that he is the only candidate who can stop Trump, so conservatives need to rally around him. Mitt Romney, in his speech against Donald Trump, recommended that voters support whoever could beat Trump in their state. Rubio voters in Kentucky, but especially in Maine, Kansas, and Louisiana, seem to have bought this argument in large numbers.

As a result, Cruz obliterated Trump in Kansas, the state where Trump had already seemed most vulnerable but still led in the polls. He smashed Trump in Maine, where polling was scarce but a Trump victory seemed very likely based on the behavior of other New England states and the Trump endorsement by Gov. Paul LePage. And Cruz came within a few inches of beating Trump in Kentucky and Louisiana as well, despite Trump’s large double-digit polling advantages in both states.

Why did this happen? The urgency of preventing a Trump nomination was clearly foremost on voters’ minds. Part of the reason it was Cruz and not Rubio surely has to do with the states that were in play and the campaigns’ work within them. If they were taking Romney’s advice, Cruz was the natural alternative. But probably part of it had to do with Cruz’s impressive debate performance on Thursday — by far his best yet. And part of it probably had to do with the increasing (and perhaps necessary) ribaldry with which Rubio has lately engaged Trump in order to, as he put it, punch back at the bully.

Rubio’s attacks on Trump — the personal ones, but also the line of attack that Trump is a con artist — rattled the businessman at the very beginning of last Thursday’s debate. Trump never recovered after Rubio’s first jab, and between Rubio and Cruz became the victim of a tag-team thrashing. Rubio’s attacks focused more on Trump’s career and persona, Cruz’s on his evident lack of conservatism. And Rubio’s presence on the debate stage was probably necessary to make Cruz’s punches land.

Yet Trump’s bullying — “little Marco,” he kept calling him — combined with the fact that Rubio was obviously suffering from a cold, have probably have hurt Rubio. That Cruz won that debate was the nearly unanimous verdict of the pundits. And John Kasich, not Rubio, was the clear second-place. With that debate and in the campaign leading up to it, Rubio got into the mud to wrestle the pig, but dirtied himself up a lot more than Cruz had to in the process.

Political reporters typically refer to such Pyrrhic victories as Rubio won in that debate as “murder-suicides.” One could also think of it as a self-sacrificing attack that takes out the real threat to the party. Either way, the voters seem to be making up their minds about who will be the Trump alternative, and it’s putting immense pressure on Rubio to quit the race. His argument for staying in: There will be other states — winner-take-all Florida, especially — where I’m the guy in a better position to stop Trump. But it remains to be seen whether the voters will rise to the occasion there and keep following Romney’s advice, or simply settle on Cruz.

Is Rubio out of it? On Sunday, Rubio got a bit of a respite from the apparent desperation of the night before. With a resounding majority, he took all 23 of Puerto Rico’s delegates, so that over the weekend he only got about ten fewer than Trump. Still, he remains under increasing pressure to drop out. His nearly winless performance so far in the primary season (he did also win the caucus in Minnesota last Tuesday) has opened up a delegate deficit that even a victory in Florida can’t erase.

Things will likely get worse after this week’s contests, because, with the possible exception of Hawaii (completely unpolled), they don’t fit the profile of strong Rubio places.

Rubio’s problem, at heart, seems to be not of a debate gaffe here or there, or a poorly received phallic joke, nor even of the wrong states being in the wrong order on the calendar. Rather, it is of apparently shoddy campaign fundamentals that have cost him dozens of delegates in primaries he didn’t win. This has been the silent killer of his campaign.

Even by Super Tuesday, the impression was sinking in that the Rubio team just doesn’t have what it takes on election day. That is why everyone fears a Trump win in winner-take-all Florida on March 15. The Cruz campaign’s decision to open offices in Florida exacerbates those fears.

Rubio’s near miss at defeating Trump in Virginia on Super Tuesday was tragic for him, but actually the least of his problems. It might have represented the best anyone could have done, given the double-digit deficit he was facing in the polls. The fact that Rubio wasn’t the nominal winner in Virginia only caused him to win one delegate less than Trump, so it’s not that big a deal.

The real malpractice of his campaign has come in states Rubio was not expected to win. The cause of his nearly prohibitive delegate deficit at this point is his just barely failing to reach the delegate threshold in four states where he was competing. In many states that voted recently, at-large delegates are allocated proportionally, but only to candidates who reach a certain threshold. For example, in Alabama, Texas, and Vermont, only candidates who finish with more than 20 percent get a share, and those with 19.9 percent get none. In Maine, the threshold is 10 percent.

The worst possible result, of course is to spend time and money and yet finish just below the threshold. Yet in each of those states mentioned, Rubio did just that. He came up just one or two points short of qualifying for the share of delegates to which his vote share would have otherwise entitled him. In each case, this meant that Trump (and of course Cruz) received delegates for free at his expense. The time and money he spent in all of those states was for naught (except for the occasional delegate won at the Congressional District level).

That this has happened four times now is a sign that the Rubio operation is doing something wrong in setting its goals for voter contact, spending, and candidate time. For Rubio to miss out on probanly more than 30 delegates in this way is to let the leading candidates run away with the same number, so the price of these small failures adds up quickly. That’s worth more everything he got in Puerto Rico right there. 

This is why Rubio finds himself where he is now. The conventional wisdom that there would always be money and support for a non-Trump, non-Cruz candidate has come under intense pressure from the reality that Trump is well on his way to winning the nomination and someone has to stop him now. Even Sen. Lindsey Graham, whose foreign policy views are more in line with Rubio’s, and who once jokingly spoke of murdering Cruz on the Senate floor, has come around to the position that Cruz might have to be the guy.

GOP establishment: The endorsement of Trump two weeks ago by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was quite a shock, but perhaps it should not have been.

It should underscore for conservative voters that many in the establishment GOP are on the edge of dutifully lining up behind the frontrunner, even if it’s Trump, either in the name of preserving party unity or getting something out of it for themselves (which sometimes means the same thing).

Many conservatives — and certainly most of the ones who attended CPAC last week — would view this as a shortsighted placement of party ahead of principle. Trump placed a distant third in the CPAC straw poll with 15 percent, and some of the conference speakers’ talk of rallying around the Republican flag no matter what left a bitter taste.

Mitt Romney’s jeremiad against Trump may have put some spine back into the establishment politicians considering throwing their lot in with him. Florida Gov. Rick Scott may have flirted with endorsing Trump before pulling back from the edge. Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach did endorse Trump, only to see him flounder in Kansas. Newt Gingrich still seems to be flirting with the idea of supporting Trump. For Battlestar Galactica fans, it’s as if the cylons are in our midst, waiting to awaken.

But an already fragmented GOP cannot not survive the split between its conservative base and its establishment that would result if the latter tries to put lipstick on the pig and frame Trump as an acceptable nominee. It would mark the end of the Reagan Revolution, and for many the end of their involvement in Republican politics.

Finally, Rubio’s collapse, even if it clears a way for Cruz to defeat Trump, leaves Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell facing a dilemma. If there is no remaining path for Rubio — and it is quite difficult to see one at this point — then he has to choose between the candidate he dislikes most (Cruz) and the one that he seems to understand will irreparably divide and destroy the Republican Party (Trump).

It may be possible that neither Cruz nor Trump can defeat Hillary Clinton (it is much clearer from the polls that Trump cannot defeat her). But for now Cruz now seems to be the better bet by a long way, no matter how acrimonious his inside-baseball dealings with Senate colleagues.

McConnell is a practical man, and he has shown an ability to swallow his pride before. In 2010, he went all-in for Rand Paul, who had defeated his protege in the Senate primary. In 2015, he helped Matt Bevin become Kentucky’s governor after his surprising primary win. Bevin is the very same man who had (from McConnell’s perspective) disrespectfully primaried him only a year earlier. He will again be put to the test.

Trump weakness: The difference between the early vote and election-day vote in Louisiana deserves a closer look, because it demonstrates the extent to which recent events have wounded Trump.

In Louisiana, early voting ran from February 20 to 27. That means most of the early vote had been cast even before Trump’s first truly disastrous debate performance on the night of February 25. All of it had been cast before he played dumb on national television about David Duke and the Ku Klux Klan. Probably as a result, the early vote in Louisiana was very heavily pro-Trump, as polls had predicted, but the election day vote — not well covered by polling despite the changed circumstances — was dramatically different.

Nate Silver shared the early-vote tallies that went up on the board at the beginning of the evening:

Trump 46.7%
Cruz 22.9%
Rubio 20.1%
Kasich 3.7%


But the much larger number of votes actually cast on the day of the election looked like this:


Cruz 40.9%
Trump 40.5%
Rubio 9.4%
Kasich 6.8%

This is why Cruz nearly caught Trump in the overall vote count as the night progressed.

If you read the tree-rings, Cruz’s net 24-point gain in balloting against Trump occurred in Louisiana between the last week of February and the first week of March. That’s a dramatic swing, apparently caused by dramatic events. 

One way to think about this is to imagine that a similar shift occurred in all the other Mar. 5 states as well, and think of what Saturday would have looked like if not for the recent events that caused Trump’s decline.

Another way is to think about the upcoming primary states where polling has been spotty and hypothesize a similar swing.

Will it show up again this week, on March 8, when Idaho, Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi go to the polls? Trump leads in the few available polls (one poll shows Kasich beating him in Michigan), but that was also the case on Saturday.

If Trump’s support proves to be as soft as it looked on Saturday, and there’s really a national bank-run on Rubio’s candidacy, Trump’s momentum could be blunted further still. But if Super Cruzday was just a fluke, we’ll know soon enough.



  1. Cruz to save us from the TPP he voted for? Or the 500% increase in H1B Visa’s ?

    Who is going to save us from HIM !!

    Trump 2016 successful businessman, experienced, strong, leader all the way..

    • Strong leader? He ‘loves states’ that vote for him and doesn’t ‘love’ states that don’t as in Kansas? Great presidential material and unifier, lol. Strong leader? Far from it. Bully, spoiled rich guy, egomaniac, and misogynistic narcissist. We have had seven plus years of one. More than enough. World leaders (Yes, Virginia, there is a world beyond NYC) are expressing concern and dismay. A vote for TheRump will be a vote for HRC.

      • thank you.. for a second I thought you had a brain. You showed that to be incorrect. all your ‘arguments’ are personal.. not proof of anything. The dismay you ‘think’ you hear is because a shake up of politics as usual is a threat to the world leaders who have been chipping away at this country from every angle. The UN has had control OVER our gvt leaders. Outside countries have influenced and bought our businesses. shame on YOU for your lack of true insight into why these world leaders aren’t happy with a possible leader who won’t do what they want. Freedom isn’t ringing anywhere around you. Just the status quo humming in your ears

    • Successful businessman? Then how come he allowed three of his casinos to go bankrupt? If you can’t succeed with a casino, where the odds favor the house, where can you succeed?

      • Precisely. He managed to bankrupt 3 casinos! How do you even do that? Not to mention, government is nothing at all like a business, nor would I want it to be.

        Congress deadlocked and not getting anything done? Awesome! No more new crap we have to deal with! Do you really think this country can survive any more government action?

        My Fellow Americans are so stupid it’s scary…

        How many “government shutdowns” were there? Ever notice what actually got shut down? The only thing they stopped doing was they stopped sending out Social Security Checks! The one legitimate thing they do was the only thing they shut down! Why? To put the pinch on old people who depend on it. Wouldn’t it be nice if they had shut down everything else, and kept sending out the Social Security Checks like they were supposed to? The one thing that’s not an entitlement, the one thing that isn’t a pork project or a “dig the hole, move the hold” do-nothing job…

        I hope the Trump down, Cruz up tend continues. It would suggest that a few of these idiots are finally rubbing the stars out of their googly eyes and getting a clue. Not that it matters much which one gets nominated. It would simply restore my faith in Americans’ ability to grow a brain and think a little.

  2. America needs a president who says F**k and calls a person a P***y in a speech? I may stay home if Trump (4 wives, 4 bankruptcies, trying to take away an old ladies home for his parking garage, me, me, me….) is nominated.

    • Trumpettes are just as bad as Obamacites. Caught up in the immature distractions of Kardashian Politicis. They’re all crotch and no brain… God help this country when the majority on both sides are so fantastically dumb that they’ll vote the roof down on their own heads even when it’s obvious that they’re doing exactly that. Detachment from reality has reached epic levels.

      • No.. actually people are sick of the usual political establishment. You apparently are so entrenched in it, you can’t see what is happening. So keep your head in the sand and your butt in the air.. your brains show better that way,

        • Lols, choosing an open fraud where you’re unhappy with sneaky frauds? Essentially, screw yourself knowingly so that you can at least say that you saw it coming? How is that a win?

    • Dummy, Trump has been married three times and divorced twice. You need to count on you fingers a toes to figure that out?

      I’m pretty certain you won’t be counting when you vote for Hillary Clinton:
      (1) The blood of hundreds on her hands;
      (2) A serial rapist for a husband;
      (3) a fraudulent tax free charity which has withdrawn its tax returns for the past five years precisely because the returns are fraudulent;
      (4) a couple that makes tax deductible “donations” to their “alter ego” Charity/Slush Fund and pays little to no taxes;
      (5) a person who allowed the illegal sale of half of our strategic Uranium reserve to our Russian enemies through a Canadian shell company in return for a $150 million “donation” to The Clinton Slush Fund;
      (6) a person largely responsible for the deaths of four Americans in Benghazi because she refused to provide additional security and because Al Qaeda probably knew their movements from hacking her unsecure e-mail server…and then repeatedly lied about it to cover her own malfeasance.

      You are a fake, a phony and a fraud.

    • Can’t count can you. stay home… better yet.. leave with the liberals. You are just like the left… NO facts but state it as if they are. Bye… useless voter

    • The same RINO Establishment that keeps snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? Trump is the most blatant RINO non-conservative ever to hope for nomination. Those who can’t see it being so great in number make me worried for our nation no matter who ends up nominated or elected. Such an extreme degree of short-sighted gullibility in a population is dangerous. Forget the politicians… The People have become a danger to themselves.

      • Would you prefer Shillery or the Bern?

        I, for one, don’t want any establishment GOP candidate. I’m a card carrying conservative and have voted that way my whole life. I have also been burned one too many times by the campaign promises and lies. The campaign speeches are always the same, just the name of the man giving them has changed.

        It’s time to give the business man a try.

        • So your solution to liberals posing as republicans, is to vote for the greediest liberal posing as a republican that the nation has ever seen?

          Anyone who inherits that much money for nothing would have a hard time not making more. He’s not a mogul or even good at it. He got so much free money that even a moron could grow it. Its not a deduction from him… It just doesn’t prove what you think it does. Don’t be a sucker.

          He openly declares that he’ll cut deals of exactly the sort you’re complaining about…

          If you’re mad about getting duped in the last 15 years, you’re going to be 10x more pissed when you get what you deserve for ignoring people like me. Please, don’t be a sucker. Again. This time its really obvious…

          • You are purely speculating that he is a sheep in wolfs clothing. One of the things that attracting me to the Trump campaign is old interviews I watched of Trump. Stuff he has done with Oprah, on FOX, etc. They are easily searchable. His position, as far as conservative values has hardly changed. So I’m not buying the argument.

            Sure, he game money to liberal campaigns. He’s a business man who owns a multi-[B]illion dollar fortune 500 corporation. Almost every business dose this.

            One thing that would really cause a lot of people to wake up and really show where the candidates loyalties are is if they were to wear their donors patches on their coats, kind of like NASCAR drivers do. Every one of them would look like clowns, except one. Can you guess which one that would be?

            That one little bit of info right there gives me more info about the candidates than I need to know. It’s why the GOP establishment is fighting his nomination so vigorously. It’s why even non candidates have gone on a total smear campaign. The problem is that they all live in glass houses, and some even have glass floors.

            Trump may not be a lifelong, polished and molded political speaker, but he says what he means and what we have all been thinking for a very long time. Do I have my concerns? Yes! I’m more concerned that if we turn this country back over to the establishment candidates, ie: Clinton, Rubio, Kasich, Sanders, and yes Cruz, that we just get more of the same. Campaign promises; well worded, easily made, easily broken.

            That is the real trap.


          • I am not speculating. There’s never been a more obvious example. You’re emotionally invested and you don’t want to admit it. Pride. I’m not calling you a fool, I’m asking you not to become one.

          • What is truly amazing to me, is that you somehow believe he has no donors.. In a general sense that may be partly true, but here’s what you don’t get. Trump, who you admittedly concur is rich? Right? Now who exactly is in the club of the 1%’s in this country? See, if you think that he’s not bought, that’s one thing, but to think he cannot be bought, well, that’s quite another. These banking moguls done with him, stay in his motels, play golf with him, on his courses, etc, etc, etc. These people are his friends, some even fairly damn close. What would you do for your friends? Better question is, if indeed you think he isn’t one of this crowd, you damn sure know he wants to be. Now ask that same question.

      • How often have we been given the choice of a conservative only to find out he/she is not? So what is really different this time? I remember sending money to the Rubio Senate campaign and to the tea parties supporting him. We liked his stance on immigration! So what happened once in office??

  3. Cruz is a very distasteful character as is Hillary. What has this country come to ….Even Donald is more palatible!!

  4. The card to play is the, “TRUMP” CARD !! No one else has the b@lls, like TRUMP…
    All the millions running at Trump ! Romney is a loser, what’s he doing in this ?

  5. Ted Cruz should offer the VP position to Rubio and together then take in Trump. They should offer Kasich the Secretary of Treasury and have him drop out

    A winning ticket

  6. Cruz doesn’t have the ceiling on his support that Trump has. He doesn’t have 2/3 of Republicans opposed to him. He can win the general election; Trump can’t.

    • Cruz cannot beat a democrat.. even sanders. you miss MILLIONS who aren’t on the far right or left of center. Those people don’t want a cruz. They don’t want an establishment party. and he is part of the lame senate majority who promised to stop obama and has done nothing to even slow him.

      • In what universe have you been for the last several years? If Cruz is a member of the Senate establishment, why does the Senate establishment not like him? Answer: because he has opposed the Senate establishment in almost every attempt to go along with Democrats to get along and not rock the boat.

        • This. Cruz has been pissing off the Establishment since day one. If the short-attention-span morons that are so pumped about Trump had been paying attention to anything at all for the last 5 years, they’d know that. But they haven’t been paying attention. From the very first time Cruz started making waves in his own State I’ve been watching him and saying to myself “Damn, wouldn’t it be nice if he were President?” If the Trumpettes would put half the effort into actual research as they do spreading FUD and lies, they’d become Cruzers, too… Well, at least the ones with some brains. Cruz has been sh!tt!ing in the establishment’s Wheaties since before Trump even knew what an election was.

  7. As soon as the RINOs (working hand in glove with the Marxist Democrats) knock off Trump, they will turn their guns on Ted Cruz. That’s why there isn’t a dime’s bit of difference between them and the Democrats. It’s why they are called R-I-N-Os.

      • This. Trump is the most obvious thing of exactly the sort that his own supporters are “so sick of!” It’s amazing how dumb they are.

        Trumpettes: “We’re so sick of X that we’re going to vote for the worst and most obvious example of X that there has ever been!”

        Effing stupid…

        The fact that this is even a conversation is a morbid indictment about how clueless and gullible the majority on both sides really is.

  8. Friggen GOP. Screw what the voters want and just do what the democrats do.. that your plan? If the GOP jumps ship because the people choose Trump.. then good riddance to you. We are DONE with DC insiders and their lying to the people. You got the Senate majority when you asked for it and then you did NOTHING with it.

    • Just like fools fell for Obama’s game, Trump is playing the same game because he knows fools are on both sides of the fence… Trump is in no way a Conservative, nor has he any workable plan to accomplish anything he speaks about. It’s like you’re mad about RINOs showing their true colors, so you want to elect one that is up front about it? And that will result in him somehow not being the most obvious RINO ever?

  9. At least if Cruz is President the Credo of Republicanism of Lincoln remains. Under Trump the R Party moves far to the Political Left as Trumps Populism recruits Far Left Sanders supporters who will not vote for Clinton, into the New Republican Party.

    • Wasn’t one of Sanders’ main lines that he hates the rich? So, those people will vote for Trump? Really?

      I’m not saying you’re wrong. Most people in this country are far too stupid to do anything… It could happen, and would only be further evidence of just how dumb Americans really are… No matter who wins, such extreme stupidity cannot survive itself.

      • Trump will tell them he knows the System is rigged against them and he will fix it. Sanders uses Nationalism Trump Populism… the 2 not so different from each other.
        I have to say we see eye to eye on the rest of your comment.

        • The only way to fix it is to make him King! Lols! Trumpettes are as bad as those people who were caught on video PRAYING to Obama. Absurd. But, they get a vote… And usually not just one.

          • My son just turned 18. I’m mad that it wasn’t fixed in my time by my generation, now it’s his mess… Pretty much everyone my age and younger is a useless, nasty, dumb animal. Real people stopped being made about 40 years ago, and even then, they weren’t made en mass. The majority stopped having anything resembling human intellect about 60 years ago.

          • ” I’m mad that it wasn’t fixed in my time by my generation, now it’s his mess..”
            I feel your pain, but know this, There is plenty of blame to go around.

  10. Another way to put this might be that Trump set up the GOP so it would have to accept Ted Cruz a conservative outsider that the establishment hates nearly as much as Trump. Unfortunately he may not do as well as Trump, who was getting a lot of crossover Blacks, Hispanics and disaffected Democrats. You might not like Trump, and I have many questions myself, but you have to look very hard at the massive campaign to slime and destroy him. Trump was getting to the globalist wing of the party in a very serious way and they were very, very frightened,

    • It wouldn’t be hard for Cruz to inherit the Democrat Crossovers. Most of why they’ve stayed away from the R Party is due to falling for all the lies and hate speech promoted by the Democrats. Once they eyes are opened… I’ve had plenty of conversations with Black People while Open Carrying. They just assume I hate them and I’m a racist because that’s what they’ve been told. But, 3 minutes of conversation proves all that propaganda wrong. Like Reagan said. They’re not stupid, they just know so much that isn’t true. They think they have the answer, so they stop asking the question. When faced with reality in every day life; white guy carrying a gun in plain view, happy to talk to them and explain positions that fly in the face of waht their hateful little echo chambers have repeatedly told them… The truth is a powerful thing, and realizing that the people they’ve been voting for are such vicious liars, no matter if it’s Trump or Cruz… The truth is the root of it, not the name.

  11. Great analysis. Trump is on the decline and Cruz is on the rise. If this trend continues, Cruz could be the nominee, even before the convention. This would save party unity. But if the first ballot at the convention does not nominate Trump, then Cruz could win the nomination, but at the expense of party unity and losing the stubborn Trump contingent. This might make it very difficult for any Republican to win the general election, especially if the Libertarians rev up their ballot with Gov. Gary Johnson as their nominee.

Leave a Reply