The Briefing, Vol. 14, Issue 10
Mar. 9, 2026
This week:
- Trump’s invincible administration sheds its first blood as Noem falls
- Iran conflict still not dividing MAGA, but it could start soon
- Republicans now face a serious challenge in Texas
Outlook
Noem sacking: The firing of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is a critical milestone if only because this is the first sacking of a Cabinet secretary in Trump 2.0. The current administration has been shocking for its stability, especially after Trump’s chaotic first term.
Why did it happen? One reason Trump’s Cabinet has been so stable is the premium he puts on loyalty. Even if you mess up, he won’t feed you to the wolves just to quiet them down. The only sin that can do you in under Trump is to be disloyal. This appears to be what Noem did when she intimated that Trump knew about the $220 million ad campaign she commissioned, prominently featuring herself riding on horseback — a presidential campaign ad if we’ve ever seen one.
It didn’t help that she couldn’t just say “No” when asked under oath in a committee hearing about an alleged affair with longtime Trump-world staffer Corey Lewandowski. Even if Trump could tolerate her earlier shooting from the hip about “domestic terrorism” by the two U.S. citizens shot while obstructing immigration enforcement, he was not going to be wrongly blamed for her self-promotion.
Yet there is also some irony here. Although one might hesitate to credit Noem for it, her department has been one of the most successful in Trump’s second administration just for its operational control of the U.S.-Mexico border, to say nothing of its repurposing of existing resources for Trump’s promised program of mass deportations. As of October, the administration said more than 2 million illegal residents had left the U.S. — more than half a million forcibly deported and another 1.6 million self-deporting.
In a way, this actually makes Noem’s firing easier to understand. Why risk such a top priority for the administration — and something that is going well as it is — by keeping someone so controversial around, especially at a moment when much of her department is in a government shutdown?
Trump’s choice of Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) guarantees a relatively uncomplicated confirmation process in the U.S. Senate. It won’t result in a significant policy change or loss of faith in the administration’s priorities, and it might even help get the Department of Homeland Security funded again.
It also won’t cause too much trouble for Senate Republicans keeping their majority, since Oklahoma is no longer competitive statewide.
Iran War: War is obviously a terrible, dangerous and deadly thing — every instance of collateral damage, no matter how unintentional, is a heavy reminder of this, and we don’t mean to minimize it.
That said, our aim is to analyze the conflict in Iran from a political perspective. And in that light, we have a mixed bag so far.
Among the positive developments: Iran is already defeated in terms of conventional military power, which is better than most people expected. Also, just as Russia’s much-vaunted military has been exposed as a sham in Ukraine, China’s military technology, including stealth radar and anti-aircraft systems, has been exposed as garbage, having failed to detect or shoot down even a single U.S. or Israeli warplane. This is more than just a consolation about China making any attempt to seize Taiwan — it is also a glaring warning for all the small countries out there considering entering China’s orbit in exchange for infrastructure funding. The idea that China is a good friend to have or a useful partner is being blown away in real time. If you want weapons that work and win wars, you probably want to deal with the U.S. instead.
Also, between Venezuela and Iran, a significant amount of China’s oil supply has been cut off, driving the local price above $100 per barrel, up from a huge sanctions discount below the world price. In terms of grand strategy, Trump is winning here, successfully limiting China in its ability to cause trouble, at least for now.
This is all coming just before Trump’s anticipated meeting with Xi Jinping, and knowing Trump, he probably wouldn’t have it any other way. It puts him in a position to make bigger demands and give fewer concessions.
On the downside, there is already great pessimism about this conflict coming to a swift conclusion. And despite early U.S. and Israeli successes in decaptitating the Islamic Republic’s leadership, the regime does not have to shoot down a single U.S. plane or win a single battle in order to win the war. As long as the war remains an air war, what’s left of the regime needs only to cling to power by its fingernails, avoiding both an internal coup d’etat by its regular army and a popular uprising sufficiently strong to remove it.
The risks of this conflict grow for Trump the longer it goes on. To whatever extent the Iranian regime can hang on and block the Strait of Hormuz, it can cause serious price inflation in the U.S. political pain for the administration.
Meanwhile, although most of the MAGA movement seems to be okay with Trump behaving hawkishly for a time, there will be limits. The movement is fraying just a little bit at the edges, with high-profile influencers and lawmakers becoming more critical of Trump. This isn’t a serious problem for him yet, but put a pin in it — it could become one if Trump gets the U.S. mired in this conflict.
On the other hand, if the war ever becomes a ground war, that makes for an entirely different (and much worse) calculation for Trump.
Senate 2026
Texas: State Rep. James Talarico (D), with an assist from Stephen Colbert, defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D) to win the Democratic primary. This is widely viewed as the best outcome for Democrats, simply because Crockett is such an erratic character. However, Talarico has his own weaknesses as well.
Unfortunately for Republicans, their primary is as unresolved as it can be. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) unexpectedly placed first in the primary, finishing just ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) 42 to 41 percent. This came as quite a surprise, since Paxton had told the Ruthless podcast that he thought he might just win the primary outright in the first round.
Although this initial result may offer hope to some who are backing Cornyn, not a single poll has suggested at any time during this race that he can reach 50 percent in the May runoff.
Cornyn achieved his first-place finish by crushing Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) in round one. But the conventional wisdom holds that the second round of balloting may feature a much more conservative electorate that is more willing to take a chance on Paxton.
Cornyn is widely believed to be the stronger general election candidate — mostly because of Paxton’s multiple ethics problems but also because of Paxton’s underperformance in last week’s result. But both Paxton and Cornyn have strong track records of winning statewide elections in Texas, in Paxton’s case, despite the ethics problems being well known. Also, Paxton got his 41 percent tally on the cheap, whereas Cornyn had to spend more than $70 million to beat him by one point.
President Trump has stated that he will endorse one of the two candidates, and that the other should drop out. To heighten the drama further, Paxton offered to drop out if the SAVE America Act becomes law — a voter integrity measure that Trump has promised to sign. But its passage would require a talking filibuster, which seems exceedingly unlikely at this point and would require the Senate leadership (of which Cornyn is a key member) to tie up the floor long enough for Democrats to give 94 speeches of unlimited duration — something they seem loath to do.
It is an ominous sign for Republicans that, despite their contested primary, Democrats beat them in turnout by nearly 150,000 votes. This is the first time Democrats have done this since 2008. Although that doesn’t necessarily mean anything (Democrats haven’t had a truly contested primary in quite a while), primary turnout can sometimes be a sign of a party’s rank and file being enthusiastic to vote.
Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Republicans would really rather not have to spend another $100 million on this race, but it looks likely to happen.
A Democrat-commissioned poll shows both Paxton and Cornyn trailing Talarico within the margin of error. But it should be noted that even independent polling in Texas generally underestimates Republican performance.
