The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 4
Jan. 26, 2026
This week:
- ICE meets organized resistance in Minnesota
- Can a Republican win in California?
- Tafoya running in Minnesota
Outlook
ICE crisis: Last week, President Trump wisely abandoned his plans for Greenland annexation. Stepping away from a politically terrible position that put him on the losing end of an 80-20 issue, Trump instead struck a smart deal that will give the U.S. sovereignty over its bases on the snow-covered arctic island. He surely damaged some relationships and caused Europeans to pause on a much-needed free-trade deal with the U.S., but the damage has been limited. Trump seems to have been convinced by mid-week that he was simply taking things too far with his escalating public demands from allies.
Unfortunately for Trump, just as one crisis was de-escalating, another was escalating back home. The last week has seen the storming of a Saint Paul church during services by screaming anti-ICE protesters, followed by a subsequent second shooting of a U.S. citizen by ICE in Minneapolis as he attempted to interfere with law enforcement operations.
At the heart of the story in Minnesota is a clash over so-called sanctuary policies. Minnesota’s Democratic political leadership, in line with sanctuary policies, refuses to hand over arrested alien suspects and convicts for deportation inside of jails like most states do. As a consequence, ICE is doing more of its immigration enforcement out in the streets. Meanwhile, Democrats in the state are actively encouraging the public to interfere with federal law enforcement. An entire well-organized, well-trained and evidently well-funded network designed to follow, harass and impede ICE officers has answered the call. Some of them are roaming the streets of Minneapolis, demanding to see ID from ordinary citizens, as if they were legitimate police.
The lack of cooperation by Minnesota (in contrast to its cooperation on deporting criminals when Barack Obama was president) is causing caused the current chaos. This is why you don’t see a similar situation in states like Florida and Texas, where many more deportations are actually happening per capita. The arrests in those places are occurring, but inside of jails and prisons, without all the chaos and danger to the public.
Political cost of shootings: The best thing for everyone when shootings like these happen would be to avoid a rush to judgment and conduct an impartial investigation. But it is hard to imagine how such a thing could happen here. Hard partisanship has been so amped up that levels of trust are at or at least near zero, and everyone is publicly prejudging events that should instead be carefully scrutinized. Minnesota elected officials reacted to both incidents by immediately claiming that the shootings were clearly unjustified. The feds reflexively called both decedents “terrorists” and contended that both shootings were necessary. The feds also seem quite determined not to let state or local authorities investigate either the shooting of Renee Good earlier this month or that of Alex Pretti last week.
To be sure, both of the shooting victims were radicalized anti-ICE agitators attempting to impede federal law enforcement, and the latter was carrying a gun as he did so. That does not mean their shootings were necessarily justified, especially given the robust protections of First and Second Amendment rights (with the acknowledgments that obstructing law enforcement is not protected speech, and it is extremely stupid to push a police officer while carrying).
As far as federal policy is concerned, this standoff is extremely consequential. If ICE were to give up, it would effectively give a state government nullification power over federal law enforcement. Minnesota Democrats, meanwhile, cannot afford to back down without some kind of face-saving off-ramp, because it will be viewed by their base as a betrayal. For those running for office — like Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) and Rep. Angie Craig (D) — there is no bending, because it could cost someone the primary for U.S. Senate.
Moreover, at heart, the whole point of the operation is to cause overreactions by law enforcement in order to change public opinion. The revolutionaries behind the activism in Minnesota are looking for a new George Floyd. And so in a sense, the shootings are the point — why would they cause anyone to back down?
With no one in a position to lose face, this may therefore eventually force Trump’s hand to invoke the Insurrection Act, which would allow him to send in the military to quell unrest. And many MAGA conservatives have been calling for this, but they should be careful what they wish for. From a political perspective, each escalation and every shooting comes with a huge cost, not only for Trump’s presidency and his ability to accomplish anything, but for the entire project of enforcing the immigration laws on the books. It is not surprising that the anti-Trump, pro-immigration Wall Street Journal ed board should turn against Trump, but eventually others may as well.
The exact effect on public opinion so far is not clear, but it is probably not good, and some polls (not all, though) already indicate as much.
Shutdown coming: Mass deportations under Trump, because they incapacitate thousands of convicted foreign-national criminals, suspects, and wanted fugitives, have definitely contributed to a historic, record-setting plunge in crime rates nationwide in 2025. Yet leftists’ attempts to bring down the system by overloading it through mass resistance could still succeed, if they can sway public opinion and make immigration enforcement seem like the cause of the chaos.
The stakes have climbed even higher now as January comes to an end and the deadline to prevent another government shutdown looms. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has now said Senate Democrats will block any new appropriations bill funding the Department of Homeland Security. The House has passed bills to fund the government but will not return amid the disruptive weather until after the deadline.
They will not succeed in actually defunding ICE or the Border Patrol, whose current funding source for law enforcement, detentions and deportations is a multi-year appropriation through 2029 — part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025. Some administrative staff might have to go without a paycheck.
Even so, Democrats will count on most people not knowing about such inside baseball. Therefore, a partial federal government shutdown is very likely. If you think about it,
Democrats were willing to shut the government down last fall, when they had no real case to justify doing it (the health care subsidies they cited were always pretextual). So they are almost 100 percent certain to do it now that they have an actual case to make, toward which some people (including many normies) will be receptive.
Governor 2026
California: Well, this would be funny: In the last three publicly released polls, Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco lead a crowded field for governor with support in the mid-teens. The field is chock-full of Democrats with serious baggage. That includes Rep. Eric Swalwell (D), former Rep. Katie Porter (D), former state Attorney General and HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (D), and billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer (D), among others.
Under California’s bizarre jungle primary system, only the top two finishers in the June 2 primary, irrespective of party, will appear on the ballot in November. That could conceivably mean two Republicans end up running against one another.
So with California’s Democratic Party struggling to find a new leader and swarming into this race, the very system Democrats designed for their own advantage now has at least a small chance of backfiring.
Senate 2026
Louisiana: Rep. Julia Letlow (R) will indeed run against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who may have sealed his fate when he voted to convict Trump inhis second impeachment.
Trump’s blessing will be helpful to Letlow in a crowded field that includes former Congressman and state Treasurer John Fleming (R) and a handful of other state and local officials. Unlike Louisiana elections of decades past, this one will have a party primary on May16, with a subsequent runoff on June 27 in case no one gets north of 50 percent. (Note that both of those dates are Saturdays.)
Minnesota: Former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya (R) has announced for U.S. Senate. Her ability to make this contest into a real race may depend on two things: First, who wins the Democratic primary, and second, how the public reacts to the unfolding chaos surrounding immigration enforcement. Far-left Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) is the one she would prefer to face over Rep. Angie Craig (D).
Republicans have not won a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006, but Trump came within five points of former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
