The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 39
Sept. 29, 2025
This week:
- A government shutdown looms that is like no other
- Is it Trump’s big chance to shrink government?
- Democrat stumbles twice in N.J. governor race
A shutdown like no other: All Washington is abuzz with news of James Comey’s indictment and polling that shows Democrats plumbing new depth on various issues. But the more immediate issue is the government shutdown that looms. It is significant because it promises to be like no shutdown anyone has ever seen.
The fiscal year ends tomorrow, September 30, and at the top of everyone’s mind is the impending government shutdown that will occur if Republicans cannot find seven Senate Democrats to join them in extending appropriations beyond 11:59 p.m. tomorrow.
The plan that has already passed the U.S. House would extend funding for the government to Nov. 21, by which point a longer-term deal is supposed to be reached. The Senate tried and failed earlier this month to pass a measure that would extend government funding only through Oct. 31.
It should also be noted, although this appears not to be common knowledge, that the House has also passed three regular-order appropriations bills, for Defense, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and Energy-Water, and the respective Senate committees have passed versions of these bills with broad bipartisan support. So it one can imagine a scenario where a shutdown occurs, but some areas of the government are easier to keep open than others.
Unfortunately, however, we seem destined for some drama. But there is a chaotic and sinister possibility that this shutdown will be unlike any other seen in recent years.
The history: Of course, we have seen government shutdowns in recent history. Some last less than a day, and some last longer.
In fall 1995 and early 1996, there were two federal government shutdowns, the result of a clash between President Bill Clinton and Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.). Both sides deserved some blame, but it is widely agreed that Republicans were blamed by the public and took the brunt of the political consequences.
In October 2013, Republicans shut down the U.S. government for 17 days in a vain and fruitless effort to prevent funding for Obamacare. They unambiguously owned this one, really having no basis for blaming Democrats at all. The shutdown may be best remembered for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) reading “Green Eggs and Ham” from the Senate floor as part of a talking filibuster that the late Democratic Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) eagerly encouraged, in hopes that this would make clear just how blameworthy Republicans were.
Even so, that shutdown did not upset voters to the point that the Republican brand suffered too badly. (Well, with one possible exception — see below about Virginia’s 2013 statewide elections.) Republicans went on to make massive gains in the 2014 midterm elections, including a staggering net gain of nine Senate seats and 13 House seats, which left the party with its largest House majority since the Great Depression.
In 2018, a dispute between President Trump and Democrats over funding for his border wall resulted in the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted more than a month, starting at Christmas. Trump had decided to make this an issue following pushback from his base on his signature immigration issue. Republicans definitely took the blame for this one, and they did suffer in the elections that followed, losing control of the U.S. House, even though they did increase their ranks in the U.S. Senate. (This was in large part because the Senate map of that year’s class had been unnaturally skewed toward Democrats in previous elections, particularly 2006.)
Reductions in force: What is different this time? Two things. First, this might be the first shutdown in modern history where Republicans can plausibly claim to be the innocent party — just trying to keep the government open while Democrats want to shut it down for political reasons. This doesn’t mean the public will view it that way, but Democrats have a much weaker case this time.
Second, Democrats are the party of government. They typically want to avoid shutdowns, except short ones, and even then only insofar as they can be useful politically. Democrats don’t want to shut government down for its own sake. This current shutdown is only being undertaken because the Left was so filled with rage in March, when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) meekly acquiesced to a continuing resolution keeping the government open. Schumer tried to explain that he feared that a shutdown would only put DOGE on steroids and give Trump a license to cut — precisely what may be about to happen. He has to act tough, or else some political opportunist on the Left will take advantage — he may risk a challenge for his leadership role or even a primary challenge for his Senate seat in 2028 from someone like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and he could lose in either scenario.
A truly unique circumstance: The confluence of leftist political rage within the Democratic Party and Trump 2.0’s ruthless (although currently stalled) implementation of Project 2025 puts us in a budgetary situation unlike anything seen in modern times. Democrats are trying to shut down government to appease their base — even though this is a potentially suicidal act that could empower Trump to downsize government beyond anything we have seen thus far in his second term.
Already, Trump’s Office of Managment and Budget has asked agencies to draw up reduction-in-force plans — that is, mass layoffs of government workers beyond the buyouts, layoffs, and firings already implemented across many major agencies. The stated rationale is that “federal programs whose funding would lapse and which are otherwise unfunded … are no longer statutorily required to be carried out.”
No one has ever approached a government shutdown in this manner before. This is truly terra incognita — no one has any idea how it will come out, but the courts will likely end up having to sort out a lot of the issues that arise. Just note that today’s courts that are more favorable toward conservative interpretations of the Constitution and of federal power than at any time in modern history. Democrats may be tired of being pushed around, but they are risking a lot if they pick this fight.
Governor 2025
New Jersey: A new independent poll suddenly has former state Sen. and 2021 nominee Jack Ciatarelli (R) tied with Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D). Ciatarelli is also shopping around an internal poll that shows him with a one-point lead. This comes just as two new and damaging stories have struck her campaign.
The first was a self-inflicted wound from an old interview with the podcaster Charlemagne tha god. Back in May, Sherrill said she didn’t know whether she had made $7 million trading stocks while in Congress, tripling her net worth while in Congress. Her subsequent explanation — that this had to do with her husband’s compensation structure — is a bit hard to sell to voters. Republicans have obviously done everything they can to resurface this interview and her reaction to spread the idea that she is out-of-touch — most ordinary non-billionaires would presumably remember making $7 million.
The second wound is an even older one. Sherrill was apparently not allowed to walk at graduation at the Naval Academy in connection with a cheating scandal that also ensnared said husband at the time in the early 1990s.
Another obstacle for Sherrill is that her race is also a referendum on the last eight years of Democratic rule in New Jersey, and incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy has an approval rating around 35 percent, depending on the poll you consult. This period has been one of local economic stagnation, a hostile business climate, and significant net-losses of residents to other states, which may account for President Trump’s historically strong 2024 performance. Voter registration is heading in Republicans’ direction. Many view New Jersey as becoming a potential swing state in the near future, and indeed, Ciatarelli came within three points of an upset in the 2021 governor race.
Virginia: Typically, federal politicians avoid shutdowns right around midterm and presidential elections. But one of the dangers of a government shutdown is that, in every odd-numbered year, Virginia statewide races occur about a month after the fiscal year begins.
Virginia, of course, is home to an inordinate number of civilian and military government employees, who will either be on furlough or forced to work (at least temporarily) without paychecks. This could have unpredictable results for whichever party is perceived to be the culprit.
In 2013, just weeks after Republicans were clearly to blame for the lengthy federal government shutdown that October, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) came up 50,000 votes short of defeating former Clinton-era DNC Chairman Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) for governor, and state Sen. Mark Obenshain came up just 1,000 votes short of winning for attorney general.
On the other hand, it is widely assumed (and not without justification) that civil servants tend to vote Democrat anyway, so this may not be as much of a major issue as people expect. Still, the military is an exception to this. During shutdowns, they must work unpaid.
Governor 2026
Florida: So far, this race has been viewed only through the lens of the Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds (R) being the overwhelming favorite. But the latest poll commissioned by a state-based free market think tank, the James Madison Institute, contains a bombshell finding that suggests otherwise.
In a hypothetical matchup, Casey DeSantis, wife of the current governor, outpolls Donalds, albeit only slightly and within the margin of error. According to the JMIPoll, she attracts 26 percent to his 23 percent, with 39 percent of the Republican primary electorate undecided and all other comers in single digits. If DeSantis chooses not to run, Donalds leads the field with 29 percent.
Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited and ineligible to run for re-election next year.
