The Briefing, Vol. XI, Issue 49
This week:
- Six weeks until Iowa, and Trump remains as dominant as ever
- One reason Nikki Haley might be just the right veep pick for Trump
- Biden’s numbers just keep getting worse
President 2024
Last week’s Republican debate was a strong one for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as he challenged former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R), his top challenger for the second-place spot in the primary.
The problem for both DeSantis and Haley, however, is that it all feels like too little, too late.
Unless one of them can pull off a monumental upset in Iowa, proving all the polls not only wrong but disastrously so, their campaigns will be left behind next month on the ash heap of 2023, the year that will have just ended. The latest DesMoines Register poll, which was in the field until Dec. 7, found former President Trump at 51 percent, leading DeSantis by 32 points and towering over the entire GOP field.
Indeed, it seems difficult at this point to see a future where Republicans do not nominate Trump for their third consecutive presidential election, in spite of his legal exposure and his status as one of the nation’s most controversial politicians.
To be sure, Trump stands a great chance of beating Joe Biden — as would anyone right now. Still, a third Trump nomination is potentially dangerous in a way that even his supporters need to understand. Although most Americans evidently don’t buy into the idea that the prosecutions of Trump are being legitimately undertaken in the interest of justice (the polls are quite convincing on this score), the impact of an actual criminal conviction on public opinion and his campaign could prove unpredictable. Will Trump gain additional sympathy when he is branded a felon or actually incarcerated by a vindictive liberal judge? Or will he suddenly look like a felon? Anyone who says he knows the answer to that one is bluffing.
Biden-trend: The good news for Republicans is that Trump really does look like he would win in a head-to-head contest with Joe Biden. Since last week, two additional national polls of registered voters have given Trump a four-point lead, and that lead may expand when pollsters narrow their focus to “likely voters.” His lead in the latest Wall Street Journal survey grows when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are added as alternatives. It also shows Republicans with a robust five-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot.
(One noteworthy development that could matter later in the veepstakes: Nikki Haley, whose brand of Republicanism seemed to have fallen out of favor with Trump’s rise, leads Biden by a much more impressive 17 points in the Journal poll.)
A bevy of CNN surveys also dropped this week. Trump leads Biden by an astonishing ten points in Michigan and by five in Georgia. (Interestingly, he performs better in both surveys against Biden than DeSantis, but not as well as Haley.) The results do not change significantly when third-party candidates are added into the mix.
Biden’s job approval has sunk below 40 percent in the RealClearPolitics average for the first time since summer 2022, when gasoline prices reached their peak. The real question is whether Biden can improve his image in the next 10 months, and whether Democrats can regain ground through their plan of campaigning on abortion in key states between now and then.
Biden legal problems: Biden will have a few legal bullets to dodge between now and election day. Hunter Biden’s indictment last week on tax charges raises the specter of additional problems for his campaign, as does congressional Republicans’ continued investigation of his own involvement in Hunter’s alleged corruption.
But one less commonly referenced bullet for Biden is of a different sort. This is a case the Supreme Court will hear this term, alleging that the Biden administration engaged in a campaign of online censorship.
The potential harm from this to Biden as a candidate is perhaps underrated at the moment. A ruling against his administration would most likely come down in June, just as the parties are preparing for their conventions. It would at least be a bad authoritarian look for Biden at a moment when other trends, such as gasoline prices and Hunter’s legal process, will be turning sharply against him.
Governor 2024
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) just endorsed businessman Bill Graham for the GOP nomination. In so doing, he is throwing himself in front of the train that has been Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R), a staunch conservative who would be the state’s first black governor. Robinson is a bit of a polarizing figure for some Republicans, having said of women leaders, “We are called to be led by men.” Robinson has also vocally denounced the teaching of “transgenderism, homosexuality — any of that filth” in public school classrooms. Polls suggest that this latter is a popular if media-unfriendly position on the topic, but some argue that it will cost him more support in the state’s rapidly growing suburbs than it will help him gain in potential black supporters and other culturally conservative voters.
Senate 2024
Indiana: Businessman John Rust may wiggle his way onto the Republican primary ballot. Despite not meeting the legal requirement of having voted in party primaries or getting approval from his county party chair, an Indianapolis judge ruled to let him on the ballot on the grounds that the law was invalid. Secretary of State Diego Morales is appealing the ruling, as the Republican Party establishment rallies around conservative Fort Wayne-area Rep. Jim Banks (R). Banks, who outlasted efforts within the state party to generate an alternative nominee, is currently the favorite for the nomination to replace Sen. Mike Braun, who is running for governor. Indiana’s primary election will be May 7 for both presidential and down-ballot elections.
New Jersey: Republican Rep. Jeff van Drew will run for re-election instead of making a bid for the seat currently held by indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D).
On the Democratic side, which matters a lot more in New Jersey, Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) is now talking about running. This would create a bit of a crowded race, with First Lady Tammy Murphy and Rep. Andy Kim already running. Menendez may yet run for re-election, but the current polls suggest that the strong possibility (much stronger than in Trump’s case) that he will be in prison next November is likely to deter Democratic voters from renominating him.
