The Briefing, Vol. XIV, Issue 3
January 20, 2026
This week:
- The politics of Greenland: Not very good
- Democrats have put the Senate in play
- Musk backs an underdog in Kentucky
Outlook
Lay of the land: President Trump’s net approval rating is negative, ranging somewhere from minus-five (Morning Consult) to minus-19 (CNN). And Democrats enjoy a modest but significant lead in the congressional generic ballot — the RealClearPolitics average places it at 4.4 percent.
This is not a lost game yet, and there’s certainly no reason for the administration to give up or even let up on its agenda. But Trump needs to stick to what his political operation does well if he wants to succeed. His normal modus operandi is to take wildly popular 80-20 ideas and stand on the 80 percent side with a public that largely approves.
To date, he has had relative success with this strategy. He has taken novel steps to identify and eliminate waste, fraud and abuse. He has actually sealed the border from illegal crossings — something no one thought possible — with a resulting plunge in overdose deaths from narcotrafficking. He has set ICE free to capture and deport illegal aliens — especially convicted, charged, and wanted criminals. He has moved to preserve women’s sports and get male inmates out of women’s prisons. He has helped bring at least temporary peace settlements in multiple international conflicts.
As long as Trump keeps up such high-profile pushes, the average voter looks at his administration as a bastion of common sense. That in turn gives him more leeway to make meaningful change in more behind-the-scenes ways and in other areas where public opinion isn’t always quite so slanted in his favor — for example, in his curtailment of “green” net-zero energy policies and his recent, stunning success in removing Nicolas Maduro from power in Venezuela.
Greenland breaks Trump’s normal pattern: Unfortunately, Trump has now leapt into an immense departure from this winning formula, and it is hard to figure out why. With political winds turning against his party, this may not be the best environment in which to obsess, insist upon, or campaign publicly for a policy that is extremely unpopular on the national stage, such as the acquisition of Greenland.
As far as the politics of Greenland goes, they are just plain lousy. The polls very, but they basically all agree that almost no one supports the use of force to take Greenland from Denmark — about 4 percent approve in one poll, with 71 percent against, but another poll shows as many as 86 percent opposed. Even the proposal to purchase Greenland comes up very short, with between 55 percent and 70 percent against and small minorities in favor.
In this context, Trump’s recent letter to Norway’s prime minister is — well, it’s quite difficult to defend, either from a political or a diplomatic perspective.
Diplomacy aside, it is the rare time in Trump 2.0 where the president is digging himself a holeby standing proudly for a 20 or 10 percent-approval issue, in opposition to a public where about 80 percent agrees he is wrong.
One might therefore assume that Trump must be acting in some heroic and politically sacrificial self-interest. Perhaps the administration has another grave reason to pursue this policy that we don’t know about publiclly — for example, an extraordinary and immediate Arctic threat that makes it necessary to acquire Greenland for national security purposes. If so, it is time the administration made the case clearly.
It is unclear what such a threat might involve, though, because the U.S. already has great military freedom of operation in Greenland under a 1951 treaty and possesses a large airbase in its northern reaches.
If that is not sufficient to defend the Western Arctic from Chinese and Russian threats, Trump needs to level with the public and spell out why. Otherwise, this Greenland distraction is only harming him in a critical midterm election year.
Senate 2026
Alaska: Yet anothe poll shows former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) leading Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), 48 to 46 percent. The result is actually less than two points, well within the margin of error. But it is at least clear that Democrats have put this race on the table, and it is clearly one that Republicans cannot be sleeping on.
And this means that they have put the Senate in play. It would be a difficult path, and certainly not a parlay you would want to bet on, but they could wrest control of the upper chamber from Republicans if they could seize Republican seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and then perhaps Texas (where the Republican primary offers them some hope) or Ohio, and avoid losing any of their more vulnerable seats (Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota).
Kentucky: In a multi-way primary to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), Elon Musk has taken sides, putting a cool $10 million behind Nate Morris (R), who owns a recycling business.
But he is definitely backing an underdog against the two higher-profile candidates in this race are Rep. Andy Barr (R) and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R). A new poll from Kentucky First Action shows Cameron the favorite, leading the field with 40 percent to Barr’s 25 percent and Morris’s 13 percent.
Democrats will be choosing between former state Rep. Charles Booker (D), who lost to Sen. Rand Paul (R) by 24 points in 2022, and veteran Amy McGrath, who lost to McConnell by 20 points in 2018.
Louisiana: President Trump has apparently taken a different direction in this race. He may now choose to take sides against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who voted for his second impeachment. What Trump actually said is that he will be backing Rep. Julia Letlow (R) in the event that she runs, which he encouraged her to do in an online social media post.
Texas: A new poll from Emerson College suggests that even white liberals in Texas have their limits. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D), who had been leading in other surveys, trails state Rep. James Talarico (D), 47 percent to 38 percent. This result is potentially devastating to Crockett, who may be lucky even to keep Talarico under 50 percent and reach a runoff. It could prove fatal to her hopes of raising big money to spend in the final stretch leading up to the March primary.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn (R) still looks like a dead man walking. He trails Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by just one point, 27 to 26 percent, but there is no indication he can reach the 50 percent he needs to prevail in a runoff.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R), the underdog third man in the race, draws 16 percent support. In a general election, Cornyn and Hunt both lead Talarico by an identical 47 to 44 percent, and both lead Crockett by an identical 48 to 43 percent. Paxton runs even with both Democrats in the survey.
It is worth noting that polls historically overstate Democratic support in Texas. This same poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D), the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination, by just eight points. In 2018, the last time Democrats enjoyed a strong midterm year against first-term incumbent Trump and nearly defeated Sen. Ted Cruz (R), Abbott still won by 13.
