The Briefing, Vol. XIII, Issue 44
Nov. 3, 2025
This week:
- Election Day will be a test of Democrats’ shutdown politics
- Tuesday’s elections carry some chances for Republicans
- Crockett Senate bid could be huge for Texas GOP
Outlook
Shutdown and Consequences: Election Day 2025 arrives tomorrow. Among other things, this means we are one just year away from the 2026 midterm elections.
Next November’s races are keen on the minds of President Trump and his team because they will determine his ability to enact his agenda. In the House, prospects are dim and may hinge on the various redistricting battles going on across the country.
In the Senate, where Democrats’ prospects of gaining a majority are much weaker, Republicans’ ability to confirm judges — and especially Supreme Court justices — might depend on their ability to maintain a majority that has a few senators as margin.
The big question right now, then, is what effect the shutdown battle is having on this upcoming partisan clash.
As of late October, there was just an occasional outlier poll showing Democrats with a statistically significant lead. NBC News’s poll from last week gave them an eight-point lead, and Quinnipiac in mid-October gave them a nine-point lead. All the other polls — not conservative polls, but polls from such media organizations s NewsNation, The Washington Post, The Economist, and Morning Consult — have the race tied or with Democrats leading by three points or less.
Considering we have been in a government shutdown now for 33 days, this is not bad. Republicans historically absorb the blame for all shutdowns. Although Democrats are hoping to benefit from this one, the public seems largely wise to the fact that they have created the problem.
The media seem to understand that it’s harder this time to echo the usual talking points about Republicans taking food from families’ mouths, and therefore even the impending loss of new SNAP funding has been soft-pedalled and left largely to local media for coverage.
As we noted last week, some believe the entire shutdown effort is a get-out-the-vote strategy among public employees — a theory that will be tested later this week in two ways — by the result, of course, but also by what happens afterward. Although they could press their luck further by refusing to extend funding until Thanksgiving or Christmas the expectation is that a handful of additional Senate Democrats will finally cross over and vote to end their filibuster and fund government at pre-shutdown levels.
The most face-saving way for them to do that at this point would be for them to cite Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-S.D.) promise (from more than two weeks ago) to hold a floor vote on the extension of enhanced COVID-era Obamacare subsidies currently slated to end in January — the issue Democrats publicly latched onto as a justification for staging this standoff at the beginning of October.
Governor 2025
New Jersey: Based on polling and the early vote tally, former state Sen. Jack Ciattarelli (R) is in a better position to win tomorrow than he was in 2021, when he came within three percentage points of unseating Gov. Phil Murphy (D). Given that environment, his chances of defeating U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) tomorrow are decent, although it’s going to be close enough that we wouldn’t bet any money on it.
Virginia: Winsome Earle-Sears (R) still appears headed for a decisive loss for governor on Tuesday, probably in the neighborhood of about five points, against former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D). However, many of the same polls showing Earle-Sears losing show Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) with a lead, and the possibility of so much ticket-splitting is definitely a hopeful sign for him. Miyares appears more likely than not to defeat Jay Jones (D) in his race down-ticket for attorney general.
The lieutenant governor race is somewhere in-between those two. Although generally the lieutenant governor does not play a consequential role in state government, a victory by talk-show host John Reid (R) over state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) would result in a Republican presiding over the state Senate. Some have speculated that that could somewhat complicate Democratic efforts to get a redistricting constitutional amendment onto the ballot in time to affect the 2026 election, something some Democrats in the Commonwealth have now proposed in reaction to other states’ decisions to redistrict mid-decade.
Governor 2026
Florida: U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R) has been touting a new poll from the University of North Florida that shows him leading both of his most likely potential Democratic challengers — David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings (who may announce as soon as this month) — by double digits. But the poll still shows potential challenger and Sunshine State First Lady Casey DeSantis (R) doing slightly better against both.
As an aside, appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is a favorite to be elected in next year’s special election, polling at 49 percent with a double-digit lead over Jennifer Jenkins (D).
But it is still early in the game, given Florida’s extremely late primary date of Aug. 18, 2026.
New York: If Republicans have any hopes about what next year’s midterms might look like, that would be 2002 — the last time a Republican (George Pataki) won the governorship of New York. Could it happen again? Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) from the Nothern Tier narrowly leads Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in a new poll by the conservative Manhattan Institute. The poll is an outlier, but Hochul’s recent, begrudging and belated endorsement of mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani (D) may reflect the overall perception in all polls that Hochul enters this election cycle. vulnerable.
Senate 2026
Maine: It’s been flying under the radar, but Mainers will also be voting tomorrow, on a ballot referendum to require voter ID. Steve Robinson deadpanned the following regarding Democratic socialist Graham Platner’s (D) recent appearance at the Portland State Theater:
“Our democracy is under attack,” said Platner, who has previously led paramilitary training courses for the Maine chapter of the Socialist Rifle Association. “The reason we are in this room together today is because there is a move to steal democracy from us, to restrict access to the ballot for Mainers of all stripes.”
The measure, which is framed on the ballot with misleading language, is expected to fail just narrowly.
Platner, meanwhile, has lost four top staffers amid multiple recent controversies and scandals surrounding his candidacy, including one about the surprisingly large Nazi-SS tattoo he had prominently inked into his chest. His campaign treasurer’s departure was noticed Friday when his campaign filed a new Statement of Organization listing a new treasurer. His finance director had already quit earlier last week, stating that his ““professional standards as a campaign professional no longer fully aligned with those of the campaign,” the Judge Street Journal substack reported. In the middle of last month, he also lost his campaign manager and political director.
In short, the Democratic Establishment class has come down on this guy like a ton of bricks in the service of helping Gov. Janet Mills (D) slip in and win the nomination with minimal opposition. And it’s not just the opposition research dump they have landed on Platner. It is likely that staffers and consultants are also being threatened behind closed doors with a lifetime ban from lucrative campaign contracts.
Of course, it could all backfire and somehow help Platner. Many on the far Left are prepared to back him no matter what, and all recent polling has him dominating the primary. But don’t be surprised if he starts to trail off in polls of Democrats.
Mills and Platner are competing for the nomination against incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R).
Texas: Rejoice, Republicans: Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D), perhaps impelled by the impending loss of her U.S. House seat due to redistricting, is now considered likely to run for U.S. Senate, having mentioned that she is polling the race. If she does, we have previously mentioned polls from recent months that show her the instant frontrunner over the currently declared (and much more viable statewide) candidates such as former Rep. Collin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D). And these Democrats might be hesitant to attack Crockett to harshly, lest they face serious consequences to their future careers. One Democrat who might eclipse Crockett, should he enter the race, would be two-time statewide loser and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D). Anyone wanting to get into this race will have to hurry — in sharp contrast to Florida, the primary in Texas will be held in March 2026, with a filing deadline of Dec. 8. Crockett, however, with her extremely high national profile and progressive following, might prove quite capable of raising money in a short period of time.
A bid by Crockett would take quite a bit of pressure off Republicans, whose primary in this race appears to be a death match between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R), Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R).
