The Briefing, Vol. XII, Issue 13
This week:
- Time to panic? New surveys show Biden trailing in every key state
- Kari Lake is underperforming Trump in Arizona
- Larry Hogan has legitimately put a Maryland Senate seat in play for the GOP
Outlook
Another week, another set of very lousy state-level polls for President Joe Biden. The presumptive Democratic nominee continues to trail Donald Trump in Arizona (by four points), Nevada (by three points), Michigan (by three to eight points), and Wisconsin (by three points).
The two were tied in Pennsylvania in CNN’s latest survey last week, unless third-party candidates are included, which gives Trump a small lead.
Indeed, the inclusion of third-party candidates seems to improve Trump’s numbers always and everywhere, despite some early expectations that it might work in Biden’s favor. This is why Democrats are attempting to block third-party candidates from the ballot wherever possible. This, combined with their earlier failed attempt to throw Trump off the ballot in certain states, is nearly enough to call all of their rhetoric about “our democracy” into question.
The one thing that could still save Biden would be a verdict against Trump. But even this is not certain. Trump’s national and state-level lead in this race is already a sign that most voters view the multiple prosecutions and charges against him as political and therefore illegitimate.
Meanwhile, Republicans range from a two-point deficit to a six-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, and Democrats find themselves in a precarious position in several key Senate races where they are playing defense.
In short, Democrats are not dead yet. But they desperately need to turn the ship around and change the prevailing trends. It remains to be seen whether their apparent weapon of choice — an abortion-focused campaign — will be enough to save Biden and prevent further losses down-ballot.
Senate 2024
Alaska: Just in case you think you have the whole 2024 Senate picture figured out, here’s a wrinkle: Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is up in 2028, refused during an interview to rule out leaving the Republican Party over the weekend, because it has become too much “a party of Trump.” It’s probably nothing more than idle talk, but it could cease to be that if this November’s election results in 50 or 51 Republican senators.
Arizona: With the retirement of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), a clearer picture of this race emerges in which Kari Lake (R) trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D), 44 to 40 percent, or 51 to 49 percent with leaners.
Trump outpolls Lake by a long way in the same survey, leading Joe Biden, 48 to 44 percent. Both Trump and Lake are fully known throughout the state, and Trump has underperformed expectations in Arizona in both 2016 and 2020. This is therefore not good news for Lake.
This is also reflective of the 2022 result, in which other Republican candidates at the district level outperformed Lake by surprisingly wide margins. Lake is still competitive against Gallego, but this raises fears that her nomination may create another missed opportunity for the state’s Republican Party.
Maryland: Sure, Marylanders like Larry Hogan (R) for his two successful terms as governor. But do they like him enough to make him their first Republican U.S. Senator since Charles Mathias (R) retired in 1987?
A new Washington Post-University of Maryland survey says maybe so. In an astounding result, Hogan leads both of his likely Democratic opponents, Rep. David Trone (D) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) by double digits. This presents a far more sanguine outlook for Republicans than last month’s survey, which put a race between Hogan and Trone nearly in a tie.
Meanwhile, Trone has been attacked for using a racial slur during a congressional hearing. He almost certainly meant to say “bugaboo” but said something similar that may not go over so well with the state’s large (32 percent) black population. Trone represents one of the whitest parts of Maryland, stretching from the panhandle to Gaithersburg, which is a northwest suburb of Washington D.C. Alsobrooks, whom he leads in every public poll, governs the wealthiest black-majority county in America, so it is likely that this incident will be exploited before the May 14 Democratic primary.
The idea that the general election race could be competitive at all in Maryland, let alone a huge lead for Hogan, should be enough to put fear in Democrats’ hearts about the future of the Senate.
Michigan: A new survey confirms what we have been saying all along — that there is not enough room in the Republican primary for two Republicans who both strongly oppose Donald Trump and voted to impeach him. Former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers is the only candidate out of three former congressmen even to reach double digits in the new MIRS/Mitchell Research poll. He draws 27 percent support, compared to just 7 percent for former Rep. Peter Meijer and 6 percent for Justin Amash, the two Republicans who had voted for one or the other impeachment of Trump. (For the record, Amash voted for the first impeachment and Meijer the second.)
This effectively gives Rogers the status of prohibitive favorite, since he has the support of both Trump (who unsurprisingly endorsed him last month) and the traditional party establishment.
For the general election, Rogers also polls best against the presumptive Democratic nominee, Elissa Slotkin (D). This open-seat race appears very competitive, clocked by Emerson College-The Hill at 41 to 39 percent in Slotkin’s favor. With Trump leading nearly all polls of Michigan (tied in this same poll), Rogers will enjoy the most favorable environment for a Republican to run for Senate in Michigan in quite some time, perhaps since Spencer Abraham won this seat in 1994.
Nevada: Despite her modest two-point lead over likely GOP nominee and Afghanistan veteran Sam Brown (R), Democrats should be very concerned that Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is an incumbent polling in the low 40s — in this case at just 41 percent. With the backing of the NRSC, Brown is favored over James Marchant to take the nomination. Another recent survey has him leading Marchant by double digits.
New Jersey: First lady Tammy Murphy (D) abruptly quit the Democratic U.S. Senate primary after a couple of bad polls, failure to win the party line in many counties, and one endorser dropping her in favor of Rep. Andy Kim (D). Although there have been rumblings about Sen. Bob Menendez (D) launching an independent bid, such a thing is highly unlikely to happen and even less likely to make a difference in the final outcome.
Kim is not only the prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nomination, but he can probably start measuring drapes for his Senate office.
Ohio: The Trump-backed GOP candidate, auto dealer Bernie Moreno, won a big victory in the primary last Tuesday, far outperforming his polling with 51 percent of the vote overall. He starts with a small deficit against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), but nothing impossible to overcome.
Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leads Republican businessman Eric Hovde by three points, but is still polling on the low side for an incumbent at 45 percent in a new survey from The Hill. This year marks the worst she has polled since winning her seat in 2012. This will likely be the first time she has faced a genuinely competitive statewide race.
