Democrats lose their grip on South Texas

This week: The Briefing, Vol. X, Issue 25

  • Hispanic breakthrough for Republicans
  • Hispanic discontent with Biden goes far beyond South Texas
  • Oz trails Fetterman in early poll


Biden’s Hispanic collapse: The Republican victory in the special election for Texas’ old 34th congressinoal district is a huge wake up call for Democrats.

While the Left is busy trying to force people to use the fake term Latinx to describe Hispanics, the actual voters in this group (who never use the term) are reminding everyone that in Census terms, and increasingly in political terms, they are basically just white working class voters with a different ethnicity — precisely the sort of voters who made Donald Trump president in 2016.

Bear in mind, this same exact district, as still currently configured, gave Barack Obama a 23-point victory in 2012. The district has a This is no mere blip — it is an avalanche. 

This district will become more Democratic in the fall due to redistricting, making it a challenge for Mayra Flores to hold it. But the trend of South Texas Hispanics moving rightward will continue apace. This seat could stay Republican even this year in a Red wave, but it will only get more Republican as the decade goes by.

On a broader level, Hispanic discontent with the Biden administration is massive. His approval rating with Hispanics is appalling, considering their history of voting overwhelmingly Democratic. A recent poll by Civiqs shows that, among registered Hispanic voters nationwide, only 41% approve of Biden, whereas 45% disapprove. 

Even worse for Democrats is that the younger Hispanic voters are, the more likely they are to disapprove of Biden. For example, among the youngest voters, aged 18 to 34, only 28% approve of Biden’s job performance, whereas 52% disapprove. That number tapers until it reaches those over 65 years old, among whom Biden still has a 61% approval rating. This is almost entirely due to Hispanic women’s persistent Democratic tendencies. Among Hispanic men, Biden is far underwater in every age group except the very oldest.

This suggests that the discontent over Biden within the Hispanic community goes well beyond South Texas and anger over the Biden administration’s immigration crisis there.

Also, it does not seem that this could just be a question of Mexican-Americans in South Texas. Hispanic discontent with Biden also extends to such key states as Nevada (where only 43% of registered Hispanic voters approve of Biden), Arizona (only 39 percent) and New Mexico (only 39 percent), in addition to other Hispanic nationalities in states such as Florida (35 percent). If a critical mass of Hispanics abandons their party as they just did in the special election in South Texas, this will be a devastating blow for the Democratic Party In November.

Trump’s GOP: President Trump had a mixed result with primary endorsements this week. There were two races in last week’s primaries in South Carolina that seemed likely to hang on his word and efforts. The first was the reelection race of one of the Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, Tom Rice. He was clobbered by 25 points. So much for that one.

On the other hand, Rep. Nancy Mace won renomination without too much difficulty over Trump-backed 2018 loser Katie Arrington.

This is yet another sign that Trump, although highly influential with Republican voters and capable of throwing incumbents out of office, is not quite in charge of the party the way he seemed to be while in office. Many of his endorsements have been more an attempt to follow the crowd than anything else, although he has also managed to turn many “nobody” candidacies into “somebody” candidacies. 

As with Rice, Trump has been most successful against the Republicans who betrayed not only him but also their party by participating in the shambolic impeachments that Democrats brought up during his presidency.

Governor 2022

Arizona: If you want another good example of Trump as a kingmaker, consider his endorsement of former newscaster Kari Lake, which has carried her to a wide lead over the field in Arizona’s gubernatorial race, according to a poll by the Trafalgar Group. (The same poll, during the previous week, was revealed to show Trump’s preferred Senate candidate, Blake Masters, winning his race as well, albeit by a smaller margin.) 

Many Trump allies had hoped he would endorse former Rep. Matt Salmon, who now lingers behind in third place in the gubernatorial contest.

Florida: With the primary still far away — Aug. 23 is when voting ends – Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried is trying to use a new internal poll to argue that she is on the heels of former Gov. Charlie Crist in the race for the Democratic nomination. In that poll, she trails Crist by just four points, 38 to 34 percent.

It is true that Crist is demolishing her in other polls by as much as 32 points. But Crist, who left the Republican Party and then lost to Marco Rubio for Senate in 2010, then lost to Rick Scott for governor in 2014, has to be considered a strong favorite. The winner will take on the Republican who is expected to pursue the presidency if he wins, and whom Democrats most love to hate, Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Governor 2023

Kentucky: Not to make it all about Trump, but the former president’s endorsement of Daniel Cameron, the state’s first black attorney general, will be highly significant. The conseravative Cameron is already a rising star in his state party. If he keeps his head up and avoids major scandal (a big problem for Kentucky Republicans in recent history), he will be a rising star in the national party as well.

Senate 2022

Pennsylvania: The Trump-endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz is now the undisputed nominee, but he trails decisively against anti-establishment leftist Lt.Gov. John Fetterman, according to a new poll from Suffolk University

It’s still very early, but this has to be troubling news for Republicans, and a sign that they’re highly destructive Senate primary is reverberating in the general election race. The good news is that Fetterman’s lead of 46 to 37 percent demonstrates that he is well under 50% in spite of his incumbency.

Still, it bodes ill that Oz underperforms the Republicans’ eccentric gubernatorial nominee, Doug Mastriano, who trails Democratic attorney general Josh Shapiro by just four points, 44 percent to 40 percent. That isn’t great for Oz, who has such high name recognition to start with as a television celebrity. His unfavorable rating in the poll, at 50 percent, will be hard to undo and will require some relentlessly positive campaigning. Oz may also still have a lot of work to do consolidating the state’s conservative base.