538 Blog: Polls Defy Pundits, Show Rand, Carson Gaining, Kasich Holding Steady

538 Blog: Polls Defy Pundits, Show Rand, Carson Gaining, Kasich Holding Steady

Over at Nate Silver’s 538 blog, there is a fascinating aggregation of recent polls. It brings together seven different polls showing the movement of the 17 GOP candidates since the first debate last Thursday – with pundit-defying results.

Ted Cruz’s changes in polling numbers are schizophrenic across all seven polls, ranging from a gain of 7 to a loss of 3 points. In the end, he showed a slight gain of 1.4%, in spite of being asked few questions.

Rand Paul, thought to have lost ground after the debate, has actually gained some. Though some commentators expected him to be dirtied by his one-on-one engagements, it seems the average respondent was glad to see him land an early blow on Donald Trump and emphasize the Fourth Amendment in an exchange with Chris Christie.

John Kasich was thought by many pundits to be one of the winners on Thursday night. 538’s aggregation shows him in exactly the same place he was before the debate. Chris Christie, thought by some to be the big loser in the debate, barely nudged.

Ben Carson, who was seen by many insiders to appear unprepared and naïve on policy, came in with the third biggest gains at 2.4%, reflecting not the professional opinion, but the social media anecdotal consensus.

The biggest losers, according to 538, were Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. Bush was a bit distant and didn’t really alleviate any concerns of his critics, so his drop is no surprise. Walker did not put in a bad debate, but was probably the candidate of whom expectations were highest and he certainly did not meet them.

One result that was of no surprise to anyone: Carly Fiorina gained the most ground by a large margin, moving up 6 points on average. The near universal consensus, reflected by our own straw polling, is that Carly won the pre-debate forum, probably the whole evening and should have been on the top-10 stage.

Marco Rubio’s results too actually reflected the general consensus that he did himself a favor with a solid performance. He moved up 2.4%.

Finally, Donald Trump was another big loser after his scuffles with other candidates and moderator Megyn Kelly, even though he spoke the most during the entire debate.



  1. I don’t know where this writer gathered his statistics? But then again you can make statistics yield any result you wish! With that being said here is my take on the poll gains and losses! Rand Paul is a loose cannon, just like his father before him. He is very left leaning in many areas, and is not electable. Besides who would support a candidate as president who is also running for senate as a back up plan. He even knows he’s not electable. Chris Christie, simply looses on the mere fact that he is for greater government servailance in an attempt to thwort terrorism. Kaisach, too wishey washey, don’t like his half pro life views. Carley Feorina, although well spoken is not a true conservative, as for her stance siding with Megyn Kelly’s question is true testimony as to just how out of she really is, nothing has changed since her days at HP!
    Jeb Bush, let’s just say he is out leagued in the face of the other candidates. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are the clear winners in the debate, or should I say witch hunt!

        • Well while I’m doing that let me suggest three books for you to read!
          1. Art of the deal by Donald Trump
          2. Time to get tough by Donald Trump
          3. Deciet and plunder by Mark Levin
          All three are New York Times Best sellers!

          • Ok, so I am attempting to have discussion with someone who’s IQ is the range of the low 100’s, I’m wasting my time because it’s too mentally taxing for your brain to correctly process! End of discussion….

          • Sorry for causing your undies to bunch up – I’ve heard that can be quite uncomfortable.

            I assumed you would figure out, even if you didn’t already know, that Jane Fonda and Donald Trump both had two books on the New York Times best seller list.

            My bad.

            While your ‘hunches’ may very well turn out to be correct, this would not prove the statisticians were wrong, just as one customer dying right after buying an insurance policy would not prove the actuaries were wrong.

            You may want to brush up on your understanding of statistics, perhaps by reading ‘Statistics For Dummies.’ I have heard it is a good book for beginners.

          • I suppose that the NY Times best sellers is a little above you’re reading comprehension level, perhaps you’d be better suited for something from oprahs book club! That seems to be the biggest group of drooling sheep on the planet. I suggest that instead of mocking what you do not understand, get off your ass, and go learn, or do you firmly believe that the superior college education they sold you makes you exempt from that? This country is full of incompetent idiots who go around spewing incongnitive thoughts, without even knowing .001% of the truth/facts. You sir, are living breathing proof that even amoebas have the right to free speech in this country. Here’s an idea, go visit our vets and have this discussion, and see how far you get.

        • Ok, so I took a look at Nate Silver! Basically he is a number cruncher, or as I like to refer to them as is a “bean Counter”
          Let me tell you, if you ever owned a business the last person you should take advise from is a bean counting, number crunching fool! Although they do service a ligitimate purpose in business, they should never be permitted out of their cage or allowed to express an opinion, other than the type calculated they prefer!
          I like to base my descissions, having bean counter information in hand,on emotion, gut feeling, and common sense reasoning!
          Let me give you an example:
          Wall Street is full of bean counting statusticians, how many unsuspecting investors were led down the rose lined path to economic disaster, only to be told by those very same people, “I don’t know what happened, this stock should have skyrocketed!”
          It takes a certain character who can instinctually read a particular situation and avoid a disaster or pile on the Riches! No statistician to my knowledge has that ability, they get proven wrong time and again. It’s like the statistician who develops the actuarial charts for insurance companies! They lump people into group classifications based on age, gender, and marital status! But never ever is there consideration or reward for the exceptions to their rule! This I’m my mind is extremely narrow minded thinking.
          So let me reinterrate what I said before, the writer of this article has no freaken clue what he is talking about! I put my trust in emotions and gut feeling! Given that I predict Donald Trump will be our next president, that is if establishment Republicans and the Globolists don’t kill him first! As examples I site John F Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and Ross Perro, all three had the establishment politicians and Globilists running scared. Kennedy, they Killed, Reagan they attempted to kill but failed, and Ross Perro, they made him an offer, let’s just say he couldn’t refuse! Why else would a candidate at the top of the polls suddenly withdraw from a race he had pretty mich in the bag!
          The establishment republicans and Globilists want Jeb Bush, America does not! We will see who wins out this time, but my money is on the voters!

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