“Rare” NATO Summit

NATO came together this week to discuss the Ukrainian war with Russia and concerns about China being a “economic and diplomatic threat” came up.

In addition, Finland and Sweden have been allowed into the alliance.

Read more on Politico.

Will Biden run in 2024?

Kamala Harris
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris listens while meeting virtually with community leaders on Covid-19 public education efforts in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, April 1, 2021. The White House this week criticized a World Health Organization report on the origins of the coronavirus, calling it incomplete and faulting data and access provided to its authors by China. Photographer: Leigh Vogel/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images

After making comments that President Biden will run for president again in 2024 on Monday, VP Kamala Harris retracted the statement on Wednesday with apparent doubt according to the Los Angeles Times.

She stated, “The president intends to run and if he does, I will be his ticket mate. We will run together.”

Read more on National Review.

Pay Racist

Like what you see? We’d love you to Share, Like, and Comment on Facebook!

Conservative Intel has partnered with Pat Cross Cartoons!

Pat loves drawing, America, and the Big Man upstairs. His work aims to combine these three elements into a petri dish and see what happens. We hope you will find his work thought-provoking, insightful, profound, and maybe, just maybe, a bit humorous.

Check Point

Like what you see? We’d love you to Share, Like, and Comment on Facebook!

Conservative Intel has partnered with Pat Cross Cartoons!

Pat loves drawing, America, and the Big Man upstairs. His work aims to combine these three elements into a petri dish and see what happens. We hope you will find his work thought-provoking, insightful, profound, and maybe, just maybe, a bit humorous.

Post-*Roe* democracy

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Seventh U.S. Circuit Court Judge Amy Coney Barrett speaks after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that she will be his nominee to the Supreme Court in the Rose Garden at the White House September 26, 2020 in Washington, DC. With 38 days until the election, Trump tapped Barrett to be his third Supreme Court nominee in just four years and to replace the late Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who will be buried at Arlington National Cemetery on Tuesday. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

This week: The Briefing, Vol. X, Issue 26

  • Roe overturned
  • Trump’s outsized effect on America 
  • Oklahoma race may not have a runoff

Post-Roe politics: With the leaked decision on Roe v. Wade now official, The question on everyone’s mind is the same one we asked months ago, when the decision first leaked. Will this affect the political landscape in 2022?

Once again, the answer is not obvious. No one should make the mistake of confusing the planned demonstrations that are currently going on with a groundswell of outrage over the decision. Moreover, within a few months, when a handful of states do outlaw abortion and others restrict it to European levels (that is, bands after 10 to 12 weeks of pregnancy), most Americans will come to the realization that this issue does not directly affect them at all. And others still will likely recognize that there are better choices than abortion, simply because it is not as easily available to them.

From an electoral perspective, the reversal of Roe will likely have a limited effect. The abortion issue is not the most important for most voters, and for those who prioritize it, they tend to split pretty evenly. As previous polling has shown and as we have discussed, people are far more likely to view inflation and the economy as the most important issue. And indeed, although polling about the Dobbs decision and overturning Roe specifically shows that it is not popular, it is still not less popular than Joe Biden.

Indeed, this decision will probably have an effect in some states, specifically when legislators are pressed on the issue. But in those states which chose to act early on abortion — states like Idaho and Missouri, with — the effect will probably be a positive one for the pro-life side. In such states as California and New York, where abortion fanaticism has taken hold more strongly, we will soon get a better perspective on how important the issue is to the actual voters there.

The Trump effect: What is not in question is the outsized effect that Donald Trump had as president in a single term. Trump managed to appoint three Supreme Court justices in just four years. Two of them — Anthony Kennedy and Ruth Bader Ginsburg — were were either directly or indirectly involved in upholding the court’s previous abortion precedent. This has been a monumental shift, leading to last week’s 6-3 decision to uphold Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban and the 5-4 decision to overturn Roe entirely.

There is some irony, which has not been lost among Trump’s supporters, to the fact that a president with pro-choice political sympathies was the one to appoint the most conservative and anti-Roe justices to the court in the time since Roe was first decided in 1973. Ronald Reagan, of course, appointed Sandra Day O’Connor and Anthony Kennedy, who were extreme disappointments to conservatives after an era of liberal judicial goofiness.

George H.W. Bush famously appointed David Souter, who was far worse. Where Kennedy and O’Connor often strayed, Souter proved to be a genuine own-goal for conservatives on nearly every important issue. And then George W. Bush appointed Chief Justice John Roberts, whose spineless attempt to split the baby in last week’s Dobbs decision (he penned a concurrence that would have upheld the 15-week abortion van without overturning Roe, which surely would have had to be revisited a year or two later) has left it a weaker precedent then it probably should have been.

The fact is that, between Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Connie Barrett, Trump appointed an impeccable group of conservative justices who were willing to buck whatever political opinion said in order to follow the Constitution and the law faithfully, even where presidents with better long-term pro-life records failed. Early supporters of President Trump can consider this a feather in their cap. Where many conservatives distrusted him, he proved to be better than candidates with better conservative credentials on paper than he ever had.

We have noted this here before, but the main reason for Trump’s success as a conservative who had never been a conservative, the credit goes to a very Trumpian effect that the former president had on the Republican Party. So many of the usual Republican crowd that works in presidential administrations refused to be involved with his administration, that far more genuine conservatives were given positions of real power. 

This is why, although Trump was not an especially ideological politician or candidate, his administration was in many ways the most conservative in history. This was essential in guaranteeing that he made the best appointments of judges, in addition to many important regulatory questions that Trump’s administration had the opportunity to decide. This allowed his presidency to have an outsized effect, even considering its limited duration.

The result is that, although Reagan was the president to introduce conservatism back into America’s vocabulary, Trump may have been the most influential conservative president in modern history. The jury is still out, as the political effects of re-democratizing the abortion issue are unknown. But Trump’s influence could be much more positive and longer lasting than most people expected, especially after he lost in 2020.

January 6: The biggest loser in all this is probably the Democrats’ attempt to turn the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot into the big issue of the 2022 election. Almost no one has been paying attention to their show trial hearings, but the reversal of Roe has completely derailed their stagecraft and defanged the issue. As pro-abortion fanatics burn and vandalize pregnancy help centers, the memory of the capitol riot becomes less and less meaningful in the minds of average voters, who already had basically gotten over what happened more than 12 months ago.

Senate 2022

Missouri: Another new poll holds forth hope that someone other than disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens will win the primary next month. Attorney General Eric Schmitt leads him by five, and Rep. Vicky Hartzler is just one point behind him. Now at 20%, Greitens has clearly been knocked back by the realization that he is the least electable Republican in the field, not because of his views but because of the very personal conduct that forced him to resign from office.

Oklahoma: Last month, the race for the open U.S. Senate seat looked like it might go to a runoff between Rep. Markwayne Mullin and former Speaker T.W. Shannon. But a new survey shows Mullin is now at 39 percent in a new poll. WIth Shannon’s numbers drooping to just 13 percent in second place and 30 percent of the electorate undecided, this makes it increasingly likely that Mullin will get to 50 percent and win outright without a runoff.

Wisconsin: Sen. Ron Johnson just barely trails one of the leading Democrats vying for the nomination, according to the new Marquette University Law School poll, at two points behind, he trails Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, but he leads Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry by three. It’s a close race, but remember that this is how Johnson rolled in both of his victories for Senate. He trailed Russ Feingold by two points in the very last poll of 2016. Johnson has a history of overperforming. Given the right tailwinds in the midterm year, he will be in position to win a third term.

Supreme Court Ruling defends 2nd Amendment

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 23: People walk past the U.S. Supreme Court Building during a rainstorm on June 23, 2022 in Washington, DC. Decisions are expected in 13 more cases before the end of the Court's current session. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

New York’s requirement of “proper-cause” to qualify for a concealed-carry license was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in a vote of 6-3 on Thursday.

The law has been in place since 1913, but the Court deemed it violates American citizen’s Second Amendment rights.

Read more on National Review.

Free Speech Inflation

Like what you see? We’d love you to Share, Like, and Comment on Facebook!

Conservative Intel has partnered with Pat Cross Cartoons!

Pat loves drawing, America, and the Big Man upstairs. His work aims to combine these three elements into a petri dish and see what happens. We hope you will find his work thought-provoking, insightful, profound, and maybe, just maybe, a bit humorous.

Hitting the Hive

Like what you see? We’d love you to Share, Like, and Comment on Facebook!

Conservative Intel has partnered with Pat Cross Cartoons!

Pat loves drawing, America, and the Big Man upstairs. His work aims to combine these three elements into a petri dish and see what happens. We hope you will find his work thought-provoking, insightful, profound, and maybe, just maybe, a bit humorous.

Democrats lose their grip on South Texas

This week: The Briefing, Vol. X, Issue 25

  • Hispanic breakthrough for Republicans
  • Hispanic discontent with Biden goes far beyond South Texas
  • Oz trails Fetterman in early poll

Outlook

Biden’s Hispanic collapse: The Republican victory in the special election for Texas’ old 34th congressinoal district is a huge wake up call for Democrats.

While the Left is busy trying to force people to use the fake term Latinx to describe Hispanics, the actual voters in this group (who never use the term) are reminding everyone that in Census terms, and increasingly in political terms, they are basically just white working class voters with a different ethnicity — precisely the sort of voters who made Donald Trump president in 2016.

Bear in mind, this same exact district, as still currently configured, gave Barack Obama a 23-point victory in 2012. The district has a This is no mere blip — it is an avalanche. 

This district will become more Democratic in the fall due to redistricting, making it a challenge for Mayra Flores to hold it. But the trend of South Texas Hispanics moving rightward will continue apace. This seat could stay Republican even this year in a Red wave, but it will only get more Republican as the decade goes by.

On a broader level, Hispanic discontent with the Biden administration is massive. His approval rating with Hispanics is appalling, considering their history of voting overwhelmingly Democratic. A recent poll by Civiqs shows that, among registered Hispanic voters nationwide, only 41% approve of Biden, whereas 45% disapprove. 

Even worse for Democrats is that the younger Hispanic voters are, the more likely they are to disapprove of Biden. For example, among the youngest voters, aged 18 to 34, only 28% approve of Biden’s job performance, whereas 52% disapprove. That number tapers until it reaches those over 65 years old, among whom Biden still has a 61% approval rating. This is almost entirely due to Hispanic women’s persistent Democratic tendencies. Among Hispanic men, Biden is far underwater in every age group except the very oldest.

This suggests that the discontent over Biden within the Hispanic community goes well beyond South Texas and anger over the Biden administration’s immigration crisis there.

Also, it does not seem that this could just be a question of Mexican-Americans in South Texas. Hispanic discontent with Biden also extends to such key states as Nevada (where only 43% of registered Hispanic voters approve of Biden), Arizona (only 39 percent) and New Mexico (only 39 percent), in addition to other Hispanic nationalities in states such as Florida (35 percent). If a critical mass of Hispanics abandons their party as they just did in the special election in South Texas, this will be a devastating blow for the Democratic Party In November.

Trump’s GOP: President Trump had a mixed result with primary endorsements this week. There were two races in last week’s primaries in South Carolina that seemed likely to hang on his word and efforts. The first was the reelection race of one of the Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, Tom Rice. He was clobbered by 25 points. So much for that one.

On the other hand, Rep. Nancy Mace won renomination without too much difficulty over Trump-backed 2018 loser Katie Arrington.

This is yet another sign that Trump, although highly influential with Republican voters and capable of throwing incumbents out of office, is not quite in charge of the party the way he seemed to be while in office. Many of his endorsements have been more an attempt to follow the crowd than anything else, although he has also managed to turn many “nobody” candidacies into “somebody” candidacies. 

As with Rice, Trump has been most successful against the Republicans who betrayed not only him but also their party by participating in the shambolic impeachments that Democrats brought up during his presidency.

Governor 2022

Arizona: If you want another good example of Trump as a kingmaker, consider his endorsement of former newscaster Kari Lake, which has carried her to a wide lead over the field in Arizona’s gubernatorial race, according to a poll by the Trafalgar Group. (The same poll, during the previous week, was revealed to show Trump’s preferred Senate candidate, Blake Masters, winning his race as well, albeit by a smaller margin.) 

Many Trump allies had hoped he would endorse former Rep. Matt Salmon, who now lingers behind in third place in the gubernatorial contest.

Florida: With the primary still far away — Aug. 23 is when voting ends – Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried is trying to use a new internal poll to argue that she is on the heels of former Gov. Charlie Crist in the race for the Democratic nomination. In that poll, she trails Crist by just four points, 38 to 34 percent.

It is true that Crist is demolishing her in other polls by as much as 32 points. But Crist, who left the Republican Party and then lost to Marco Rubio for Senate in 2010, then lost to Rick Scott for governor in 2014, has to be considered a strong favorite. The winner will take on the Republican who is expected to pursue the presidency if he wins, and whom Democrats most love to hate, Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Governor 2023

Kentucky: Not to make it all about Trump, but the former president’s endorsement of Daniel Cameron, the state’s first black attorney general, will be highly significant. The conseravative Cameron is already a rising star in his state party. If he keeps his head up and avoids major scandal (a big problem for Kentucky Republicans in recent history), he will be a rising star in the national party as well.

Senate 2022

Pennsylvania: The Trump-endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz is now the undisputed nominee, but he trails decisively against anti-establishment leftist Lt.Gov. John Fetterman, according to a new poll from Suffolk University

It’s still very early, but this has to be troubling news for Republicans, and a sign that they’re highly destructive Senate primary is reverberating in the general election race. The good news is that Fetterman’s lead of 46 to 37 percent demonstrates that he is well under 50% in spite of his incumbency.

Still, it bodes ill that Oz underperforms the Republicans’ eccentric gubernatorial nominee, Doug Mastriano, who trails Democratic attorney general Josh Shapiro by just four points, 44 percent to 40 percent. That isn’t great for Oz, who has such high name recognition to start with as a television celebrity. His unfavorable rating in the poll, at 50 percent, will be hard to undo and will require some relentlessly positive campaigning. Oz may also still have a lot of work to do consolidating the state’s conservative base.

Rising the flag on Twitter

Like what you see? We’d love you to Share, Like, and Comment on Facebook!

Conservative Intel has partnered with Pat Cross Cartoons!

Pat loves drawing, America, and the Big Man upstairs. His work aims to combine these three elements into a petri dish and see what happens. We hope you will find his work thought-provoking, insightful, profound, and maybe, just maybe, a bit humorous.