An analysis of outside spending and poll numbers in three of the country’s most watched Congressional races paints an interesting picture.
We looked at three hotly contested races: Rep. Barbara Comstock’s re-election battle in Virginia’s 10th, the open seat in Michigan’s 11th featuring Lena Epstein and Haley Stevens, as well as Republican Congressman Mike Coffman’s campaign for another term in Colorado’s 6th District.
Comstock’s seat is one of the Democrats top targets to flip, and Republicans are spending big to try and save her.
The Virginia Public Access Project says nearly $4 million has already been spent by the National Republican Congressional Committee attacking Comstock’s Democrat opponent, State Senator Jennifer Wexton.
According to NBC News, the NRCC has committed to at least nearly $5 million.
“Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock may be the most vulnerable House incumbent of the cycle, but it’s not stopping the campaign arm of House Republicans from investing a significant sum into her defense—in the pricey Washington D.C. area media market.
While other national groups have written off Comstock as a lost cause — after all, her northern Virginia district is swiftly turning bluer as it becomes rapidly more diverse and well-educated — the NRCC is up with its first ad of the general election to back her against Democrat Jennifer Wexton.
But what’s most noteworthy may be the amount the NRCC is spending in the race. According to ad-tracking data from Advertising Analytics, the NRCC has placed $4.8 million in ad buys in the district for the general election. That’s more than twice the $2.3 million buy by the group’s Democratic counterpart, the DCCC.”
Polls, however, do not look good for Comstock. The latest numbers show she’s down 12% to Wexton.
In Michigan’s 11th, the race is much closer.
The 11th features small business owner and 2016 co-chair of President Trump’s Michigan campaign, Lena Epstein. She is running against former Obama administration staffer Haley Stevens.
The latest polling numbers in this race show both candidates are tied.
According to the Detroit Free Press:
“(An EPIC-MRA) poll in the 11th Congressional District race between Democrat Haley Stevens, who worked with former President Barack Obama’s auto task force, and Republican businesswoman Lena Epstein, shows a dead heat — both tied at 48 percent. That district covers parts of Oakland and western Wayne counties.”
The numbers are a sign of a big wave of momentum for Epstein. In a poll a couple a couple weeks before, she trailed Stevens by 7%.
Outside spending in this race, however, has been dominated by the Democrats.
According to the Michigan Campaign Finance Network:
“The biggest spender has been the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which reported spending $730,394 either in support of Stevens or in opposition to Epstein. Another group called Women Vote!, a Super PAC connected to Emily’s List, has spent $576,828 against Epstein.”
In Colorado’s 6th District, Republican Rep. Mike Coffman is fighting for re-election.
In this race, Coffman is facing bleak polling numbers, and an influential DC Super PAC, The Congressional Leadership fund, recently bailed on a $1 million ad buy for him.
However, the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent over $2 million on Coffman, and Republican groups have spent over $3 million.