A Reuters/Ipsos poll has the Republican Party slightly beating out the Democrats in a generic congressional ballot vote for the first time. 38% of registered voters said they would vote for a Republican if the 2018 midterm elections were held today, whereas just shy of 37% said they would vote for a Democrat.
Most polls have shown Democrats with a sizable to small advantage: RealClearPolitics’ polling average has them up 3 percentage points as of May 22; FiveThirtyEight has them at a 5 percent advantage as of May 23.
But the Reuters poll shows that support for Republicans in 2018 might be growing—or perhaps it is that support for Democrats in 2018 is waning, or just not as strong as the media would like to pretend.
In order to retake the House of Representatives, Democrats need to flip at least 24 seats held by Republicans at this time.
The blue wave predictions for November 2018 may well be true, but polls in May, at least, show only light rain.