David Avella, Chairman of GOPAC, is making a bold prediction ahead of the first Fox News debate: the Republican nominee will be decided no later than March 1 of next year.
It’s a claim that runs counter to the prevailing wisdom that argues the wider the field the longer the fight. And with 17 candidates currently running, that fight would run into late Spring.
For starters, Avella quickly dispels the idea that the contest will run all the way to the convention citing that that hasn’t happened since 1952.
Again citing historical results, he argues that the first three primaries — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — will whittle the field to no more than three serious contenders.
The notion that big money from super PACs will sustain many of the candidates for longer will not be able to overcome the trajectory of the early winners.
Rather, Avella details, the delegates awarded in primaries after March 1 will only further solidify the control of the field for the lead candidate.
After March 15, states like Florida will go winner-take-all, which will finally knock out any remaining hopeful candidates.