After the defeat last week of the South’s last remaining Democrat Senator, Mary Landrieu, some are wondering openly whether the ‘extinction’ of the southern Democrat is reversible in 2016.
But concerning whether the Republican hold on Congress after the crushing victory in this year’s midterms can be maintained in 2016, many analysts are doubtful.
Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney’s pollster in 2012, detailed on The Washington Examiner, “There’s no question that the GOP gained both geographically and demographically in 2014. But just as our terrific wins in 2010 gains didn’t translate into a 2012 advantage, I’m rather reluctant to make that leap for 2016 as well.”
The Senate map will be markedly different in the 2016 cycle in which the GOP will be much in the same predicament in which Democrats found themselves this year in having to defend some very tough seats.
And the prevailing post-election analysis points to a growing trend in which Republicans have the advantage in midterm while Democrats command a larger pull in general elections.
But Chris LaCivita, former political director of the NRSC, responded to this thought process, “Democrats love to push this notion that elections are based solely on demographics and geographics. Candidates matter, campaigns matter. If it’s just about demographics and geographics, then we shouldn’t even bother to wage campaigns.”