Nearly all the conventional wisdom in the recent weeks has pegged ultimate control of the Senate to the GOP. That wisdom seems to be holding steady.
To that end, despite that the RCP toss-up list has held stubbornly at nine states, poll numbers continue to point to at least six states that will flip to the GOP on Nov. 4th (or in subsequent weeks if a run-off ensues).
The most obvious have been for months now Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, which will almost certainly flip. Though a renewed effort by Democrats to exploit the recent success by Independent Larry Pressler has tightened the numbers South Dakota, the GOP has doubled-down to secure the lead held by Republican Mike Rounds.
As we’ve reported continually, Mary Landrieu’s seat in Louisiana, Mark Begich’s Alaska seat and and Arkansas’ seat held by Mark Pryor are all three very vulnerable and top the list of the most likely to flip as the Republican candidates in each of them continue to hold their leads.
We’ve also reported that gains made by the GOP in the last few weeks in North Carolina and in New Hampshire have been stunted by Democrat efforts, but surprise leads in Iowa and Colorado for the Republican candidates there make up the difference.
Should the GOP lose Kansas, many expect that either Colorado or Iowa will plug that much needed hole in order for the party to earn the six net pick-ups for control.