In a hypothetical Republican Senate primary for the 2014 Michigan U.S. Senate race, Scott Romney (brother of Mitt) would begin the race as an early, though modest, front-runner Romney leads with 26% followed by Congressman Mike Rogers at 17%, Congressman Justin Amash at 11% and former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land at 9%.
Romney, Rogers and Land all enjoy name identification above 65% and solid image ratings among Republicans:
Romney: 40% favorable, 6% unfavorable, 29% not heard of
Rogers: 33% favorable, 8% unfavorable, 35% not heard of
Land: 41% favorable, 11% unfavorable, 22% not heard of
Amash: 18% favorable, 8% unfavorable, 53% not heard of
On the Democratic side, former Governor Jennifer Granholm is the prohibitive favorite with 59% over Congressmen Gary Peters and Dan Kildee at 13% and 6% respectively. Granholm’s sizable lead is largely a function of her 99% name identification and a 77% favorable to 13% unfavorable image among Democrats.
Democrats hold a +4% advantage on the generic ballot for Senate (43%-39%), which closely follows the partisan breakdown of the poll: 41% Democratic, 38% Republican, 21% Other. President Obama’s job approval among 2014 likely voters in Michigan is -4% (44% approve, 48% disapprove).
In general election match-ups Granholm holds slim margins over the field of Republicans, ranging from +8% over Amash to +2% over Rogers.
Rogers leads Granholm 48%-37% among men while Granholm leads 47%-31% among women.
Granholm runs strong with seniors who prefer her 46%-37% over Romney. Romney’s best age group is 36-to-50 year olds who back him 47%-38% over Granholm.
Granholm retains her advantage among women (48%-33%) even when paired against Land.
With the exception of Amash, all three Republicans lead general election match-ups over Congressman Peters: Land +8%, Rogers +3%, and Romney +3%.
While the former Governor slightly leads all Republicans, Granholm’s polarizing image is a big cause for concern for the Democrat. Forty-seven percent of likely voters hold an unfavorable opinion of her while 43% hold a favorable opinion.
So while Granholm appears to be in the driver’s seat in a Democratic primary, she will struggle to grow her support above the mid-40s in a general election. Her image will need some rehabilitation to retain Senator Carl Levin’s seat for the Democrats.
The sample size for the full survey is 1744 likely 2014 voters. The margin of error is +/-2.35%. For the Republican primary, the sample size is 615 with a margin of error of +/-3.95%. For the Democratic primary, the sample size is 687 with a margin of error of +/-3.74%. The poll was conducted March 9-10, 2013 by Harper Polling on behalf of Conservative Intel.