Conservative Intelligence Briefing commissioned a poll among likely voters to assess the political atmosphere for the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Alaska.
In a Republican Senate primary, Governor Sean Parnell leads former Governor Sarah Palin 32%-27%. Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller follow at 14% and 12% respectively.
Republicans who consider themselves “Very Conservative” give Palin the edge over Parnell 26%-25%. Parnell’s strength is fueled by “Somewhat Conservative” voters who pick him over Palin 39%-25%.
Palin’s standing is not the result of her being unpopular with Alaska Republicans. Fifty-six percent of Republicans hold a favorable opinion of her, while 38% say unfavorable. The problem for Palin is that Sean Parnell has a 74% favorable image with Republicans, 16% say unfavorable.
Joe Miller has a net -9% unfavorable image rating (36%-47%) with Republicans. Mead Treadwell boasts a solid 42% favorable, 19% unfavorable image among Republicans.
Among all voters, Parnell (50% favorable, 38% unfavorable) and Treadwell (32% favorable, 27% unfavorable) have net positive image ratings. Palin (34% favorable, 60% unfavorable) and Miller (21%-56%) have net negative image ratings.
In head-to-head matchups against Democratic Senator Mark Begich, Parnell is the only Republican who starts out with a lead (Parnell 46%, Begich 40%). Parnell’s strength is among younger voters 18-to-35 and 36-to-45 years old who pick Parnell 43%-38% and 51%-36% respectively.
Parnell leads among Taxes & Spending voters (52%-37%), National Debt voters (70%-17%) and Oil & Natural Gas voters (49%-37%) while Begich leads with Health Care voters (66%-19%) and Economy voters (45%-41%). The two are tied among Jobs voters (41%-41%).
Palin trails Begich 40%-47%. Palin wins among Men (46%-42%) but trails Begich with Women (51%-36%). Begich enjoys stronger support among Democrats (90%) than Palin does among Republicans (68%). Independent and third party voters prefer Begich (52%-34%).
Despite his name identification disadvantage, Mead Treadwell holds Begich to less than 45% of the vote (34%-44%).
Joe Miller is the only candidate who lets Begich get above 50% on the ballot. Miller’s weakness in a general election results from his failure to win Somewhat Conservative voters. While Parnell (64%-20%), Palin (54%-31%) and Treadwell (45%-30%) beat Begich with these voters, Miller trails 38%-39%.
The sample size for this survey is 1157 likely 2014 mid-term voters. The margin of error is +/-2.88%. The poll was conducted January 29-30, 2013 by Harper Polling on behalf of Conservative Intel.
Click here to review the toplines.
Click here to review the crosstabs.