The 2016 Republican Caucuses:
On the Republican side, Senator Marco Rubio is out front at 27% with Congressman Paul Ryan in second place at 18%. After that, former Senator Rick Santorum (14%), Senator Rand Paul (13%) and Governor Chris Christie (12%) are in a tight race for third place.
Among Republicans who have previously attended a caucus, Rubio leads Ryan 29%-21%. However, among Republicans who plan to attend their first caucus in 2016, Ryan’s support drops to 7%. Paul (22%) and Santorum (19%) fill the void.
Among voters who consider themselves “Very Conservative”, Rubio leads with 32% followed by Ryan at 18%, Santorum at 15%, and Paul at 14%. Among the “Somewhat Conservative”, Rubio’s lead over Ryan shrinks to 3% (25%-22%).
The gender splits are revealing. Paul scores 17% among Men but his support drops to 8% among Women. Ryan seems a similar drop among Women (14%) compared to Men (22%). Conversely, Santorum (15% with Women, 12% with Men) and Christie (13% with Women, 11% with Men) do slightly better with Women.
Paul’s support jumps among 18 to 35 year olds. He leads among these younger voters with 24%, followed by Ryan (21%), Rubio (18%) and Christie (16%).
Among those voting for Congressman Steve King over Congressman Tom Latham in a Senate primary, Rubio leads with 25%, followed by Santorum and Ryan at 18% each. Among Latham voters, Rubio leads with 36%, followed by Christie at 21% and Ryan at 19%.
The 2016 Democratic Caususes:
On the Democratic side, it’s bad news for Democratic operatives in Iowa. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Vice President Joe Biden and Governor Andrew Cuomo 65%-14%-4%.
Nowhere in the cross tabs is Clinton’s support soft. Past (63%) and future (71%) caucus goers alike support her overwhelmingly.
Think of all the money Biden and Cuomo will save on airfare to Iowa.